Elutia Inc (ELUT)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$0.82-2.24%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ELUT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -54.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 56.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ELUT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-13
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: This sale will give more money and let Elutia focus on NXT-41x. A successful sale will improve Elutia's finances.
Supportive ifCompletion of the SimpliDerm sale with total proceeds of $11 million.
Worry ifDelays or issues arise that prevent the completion of the SimpliDerm sale.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is crucial for Elutia's future. A reversal shows the company is gaining traction.
Supportive ifRevenue goes up each quarter, ending the drop.
Worry ifRevenue keeps going down for another quarter.
Why it matters: Better operating income means more efficiency. This is important for future growth.
Supportive ifOperating income is closer to breakeven. This shows strong progress.
Worry ifOperating income is still negative and getting worse. This suggests deeper issues.
Why it matters: Surgeon feedback is important to confirm the market chance for NXT-41x.
Watch forSurgeon feedback shows a big need in breast reconstruction.
Also watch forSurgeon feedback shows limited interest or need for NXT-41x.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$228 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $574 loss on $10,000 · 5.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,439 loss on $10,000 · 24.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Achieving this target is key for financial health. It signals better cost management.
Supportive ifGross margin was above 80%. This shows good cost control.
Worry ifGross margin was below 75%. This shows ongoing cost problems.
Why it matters: Revenue trends are critical. A drop below $3 million would show worsening performance.
Worry ifQ2 revenue was below $3 million. This shows a continued decline.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue was above $3 million. This suggests stabilization or growth.
Why it matters: If operating income turns positive, Elutia is making more money. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifOperating income turns positive in the next quarter.
Worry ifOperating income stays negative or gets worse next quarter.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a recovery for Elutia and its peers.
Supportive ifA reported revenue growth rate for the health care sector above 10% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth is still under 10% year over year. This shows the sector is still weak.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows how well Elutia makes products. It helps with profit goals.
Supportive ifGross margin exceeds 80% in Q2 2026 financial results.
Worry ifGross margin remains below 80% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The earnings date will show how well the company is doing. It will also give clues about future plans.
Watch forAn announcement of the next earnings date within the next month.
Also watch forThere is no news on the next earnings date. This creates uncertainty about how the company is doing.
Why it matters: Improving revenue is key for Elutia to show growth and regain investor trust.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue is over $3.1 million. This shows a good trend.
Worry ifQ2 revenue remains below $3.1 million, continuing the decline.
Why it matters: Releasing escrow funds gives more money for operations. It also helps launch NXT-41x.
Supportive ifElutia gets the full $8 million from the BioEnvelope escrow.
Worry ifEscrow funds are not released as expected in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: FDA clearance is crucial for launching NXT-41, which targets a major market need. Success here could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifFDA grants clearance for NXT-41 by the end of Q4 2026.
Worry ifFDA delays clearance beyond Q4 2026.
Why it matters: NXT-41x helps reduce infection risks during surgeries. Getting clearance would show Elutia's plan works and its market potential.
Supportive ifFDA clears NXT-41x in the first half of 2027.
Worry ifFDA does not clear NXT-41x by mid-2027.
Why it matters: Surgeon interest is critical for NXT-41x's success. High adoption rates would indicate strong market demand.
Supportive ifSurgeon adoption rates exceed 90% in the first six months post-launch.
Worry ifSurgeon adoption rates fall below 70% in the same period.
Why it matters: Completing this sale will strengthen Elutia's balance sheet. It will also allow a sharper focus on NXT-41x.
Supportive ifSimpliDerm sale closes and Elutia gets $8 million in cash.
Worry ifDivestiture fails to close as scheduled in Q3 2026.