Emcor (EME)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$595.32-6.87%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EME
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -14.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 17.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: EMCOR raised its 2026 margin outlook to about 10%. A lower margin would weaken evidence of strong project execution and cost control.
Watch forFull-year 2026 non-GAAP operating margin is at least 10%.
Also watch forFull-year 2026 non-GAAP operating margin is below 9.5%, the prior guidance range's high end.
Why it matters: EMCOR raised its 2026 revenue range to $20.6 billion–$21.0 billion. Meeting the low end would support its growth story.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 revenue is at least $20.6 billion.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 revenue is below $20.6 billion.
Why it matters: The sector data show a headwind and slowing growth. A weaker industrial backdrop could challenge demand, though EMCOR cited broad customer investment.
Worry ifAt the next update, the XLI regime score remains below zero. Its lifecycle trajectory keeps slowing down.
Less concerning ifThe XLI regime score turns positive. Its lifecycle trajectory no longer slows down.
Why it matters: EMCOR said this market had its largest RPO growth. More awards could support later revenue growth.
Supportive ifAt the next report, total RPO is above $18.57 billion. Network and Communications remains the largest source of growth.
Worry ifTotal RPO falls below $18.57 billion, or Network and Communications is no longer a source of RPO growth.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$152 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $447 loss on $10,000 · 4.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,226 loss on $10,000 · 32.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.