Emerson Electric (EMR)
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-07-07
$137.93-2.56%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $137.93. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $138 EMR trades at 22× p/e, below its 40× p/e peer median, but our blended $139 fair value is roughly in line with the price. We hold it with medium confidence: the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $144–$175. Note: our $139 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($144–$175). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $150.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $127.52 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $122.54 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $70.61 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$144.00 – $175.00 (median $150.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-15
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 36% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 10.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $6.74/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2025-Q4, 2026-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $194.94 |
| 40.3 |
| 4.84 |
| Mgmt |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $162.79 | 23.4 | 7.84 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $218.81 | 39.5 | 5.53 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $201.48 | 40.3 | 5.00 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $137.93 | 4.2 | 32.53 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $161.24 | 32.2 | 5.00 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $45.30 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $115.81 | 23.2 | 5.00 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $251.75 | 40.3 | 6.25 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $284.97 | 40.3 | 7.08 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $332.78 | 39.5 | 8.41 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $113.47 | 40.3 | 2.82 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $58.79 | 4.2 | 13.87 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $90.80 | 32.2 | 2.82 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $65.22 | 23.2 | 2.82 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $367.05 | 40.3 | 9.11 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $440.11 | 39.5 | 11.13 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $40.92 | 40.3 | 1.02 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $21.21 | 4.2 | 5.00 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $32.75 | 32.2 | 1.02 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $23.52 | 23.2 | 1.02 | Analyst | high |