EMR
Emerson ElectricNYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, EMR has a composite score of 9.1 and a signal label of "mixed." The score reflects medium confidence at 79.8 and moderate risk, with a guidance credibility of 87.5. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as growth, labor, rates, and inflation.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.83
- Slope (norm)-0.12
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.68 → $1.68 (-0.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 7 cut, 20 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 62% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 10.0% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
6 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
- 2026-05-05EMR — General Counsel transitionimpact 0.57
- 2025-11-14EMR — officer changeimpact 0.35
- 2026-02-13EMR — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…impact 0.25
- 2026-02-13EMR — M&A activity — Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreementimpact 0.21
- 2025-03-12EMR — officer changeimpact 0.18
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Return $2.2B to shareholders in 2026capital allocationmixed35% progress
5/5: “The 2026 outlook assumes returning ~$2.2B through ~$1B share repurchases and ~$1.2B of dividends.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Emerson plans to return $2.2B to shareholders in 2026 through $1B in share repurchases and $1.2B in dividends. Despite recurring emphasis, financials do not yet show buyback activity, indicating limited progress on this priority.
- 2.Achieve $3.5B-$3.6B free cash flow in 2026othermixed0% progressprovisional
2/3: “Free Cash Flow $3.5B - $3.6B”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Emerson targets $3.5B-$3.6B free cash flow in 2026. Cash from operations was $699M in 2026-Q1, a decline from $2.088B in 2025-Q3, indicating limited progress towards the annual target.
- 3.Maintain EPS guidance of $4.79-$4.89 for 2026otherwatchprovisional
5/5: “Earnings Per Share $4.79 - $4.89”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Emerson maintains EPS guidance of $4.79-$4.89 for 2026. EPS was $1.07 in 2026-Q1, up from $1.04 in 2025-Q3, showing progress towards the annual target.
Guidance track record
Last 8 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-06-30 | $0.92 – $0.96 | $1.29 | beat |
| 2023-09-30 | $3.58 – $3.68 | $1.29 | miss |
| 2024-03-31 | $0.68 – $0.72 | $1.36 | beat |
| 2024-06-30 | 0.92 – 0.96 | 1.43 | beat |
| 2024-12-31 | 0.45 – 0.50 | 1.38 | beat |
| 2025-03-31 | $1.01 – $1.05 | $1.48 | beat |
| 2025-12-31 | $0.89 – $0.94 | $1.46 | beat |
| 2026-03-31 | $1.06 – $1.11 | $1.54 | beat |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 42%; 252d 30%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −23%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 1.50 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 50/100, drawdown 53/100, beta 50/100, earnings vol —.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 88% of the last 8 guided quarters · 56.8% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Return $2.2B to shareholders in 2026
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-05Emerson plans to return approximately $2.2 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends in fiscal year 2026.
MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Emerson plans to return $2.2B to shareholders in 2026 through $1B in share repurchases and $1.2B in dividends. Despite recurring emphasis, financials do not yet show buyback activity, indicating limited progress on this priority.
35%CEO/CFO:“The 2026 outlook assumes returning ~$2.2B through ~$1B share repurchases and ~$1.2B of dividends.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-05Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-05Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The 2026 outlook assumes returning ~$2.2B through ~$1B share repurchases and ~$1.2B of dividends.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“The 2026 outlook assumes returning ~$2.2B through ~$1B of share repurchases and ~$1.2B of dividends.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“The 2026 outlook assumes returning ~$2.2B through ~$1B of share repurchases and ~$1.2B of dividends.”
- #2
Achieve $3.5B-$3.6B free cash flow in 2026
OtherEmerson aims to generate free cash flow between $3.5 billion and $3.6 billion for fiscal year 2026.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Emerson targets $3.5B-$3.6B free cash flow in 2026. Cash from operations was $699M in 2026-Q1, a decline from $2.088B in 2025-Q3, indicating limited progress towards the annual target.
0%CEO/CFO:“Free Cash Flow $3.5B - $3.6B”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-03Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-03provisionalShow history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Free Cash Flow $3.5B - $3.6B”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Free Cash Flow $3.5B - $3.6B”
- #3
Maintain EPS guidance of $4.79-$4.89 for 2026
OtherNew since 2026-05-05Emerson maintains its EPS guidance range of $4.79 to $4.89 for fiscal year 2026.
WatchStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Emerson maintains EPS guidance of $4.79-$4.89 for 2026. EPS was $1.07 in 2026-Q1, up from $1.04 in 2025-Q3, showing progress towards the annual target.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“Earnings Per Share $4.79 - $4.89”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-05Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-05provisionalShow history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Earnings Per Share $4.79 - $4.89”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Earnings Per Share $4.78 - $4.93”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Earnings Per Share $4.73 - $4.93”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
EMR Emerson Electric | +9.1 | fair | moderate |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05)-8.0 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-053d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition Quarterly Results Press Release On Tuesday, May 5, 2026, a press release was issued regarding the second quarter results of Emerson Electric Co. (the “Company”). A copy of this press release is furnished with this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1. References to underlying orders in the press release refer to the Company's trailing three-month average orders growth versus the prior year, excluding currency, and significant acquisitions an…
earnings preannouncement—score 61 - 2026-05-053d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 5, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Company elected Jennifer G. Newstead as a Director of the Company, effective as of August 3, 2026 (the “Effective Date”). Ms. Newstead was also appointed to serve as a member of the Compensation Committee and the Corporate Governance and Nominating and Committee, as of the Effective Date. Ms. Newstead i…
executive changeneutralscore 53 - 2026-02-132mo agoItem 1.01
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. The information provided in
mna activitypositivescore 9 - 2026-02-033mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition Quarterly Results Press Release On Tuesday, February 3, 2026, a press release was issued regarding the first quarter results of Emerson Electric Co. (the “Company”). A copy of this press release is furnished with this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1. References to underlying orders in the press release refer to the Company's trailing three-month average orders growth versus the prior year, excluding currency, and significant acquisition…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 8 - 2026-02-132mo agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On February 10, 2026, Emerson Electric Co. (the "Company") entered into a $2 billion 364-Day Credit Agreement (the “364-Day Credit Facility”), dated as of February 10, 2026, with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as agent, Bank of America, N.A., Citibank, N.A., and Goldman Sachs Bank USA, as syndication agents, and the lenders named therein. The 364-Day Credit Facility expires on Februa…
capital allocationnegativescore 7
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.