Emerson Electric (EMR)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$152.82+1.74%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EMR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 11.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
EMR — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-02-13
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On February 10, 2026, Emerson Electric Co. (the "Company") entered into a $2 billion 364-Day Credit Agreement (the “364-Day Credit Facility”), dated as of February 10, 2026, with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as agent, Bank of America, N.A., Citibank, N.A., and Goldman Sachs Bank USA, as syndication agents, and the lenders named therein. The 364-Day Credit Facility expires on Februa…
Why it matters: Weak sales growth could signal ongoing challenges in the industrial sector. This impacts investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth guidance of 4.5% or lower.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales growth guidance above 4.5%.
Why it matters: Progress on share buybacks shows they want to give cash back to shareholders.
Supportive ifShare repurchases reach ~$1B by end of 2026.
Worry ifShare buybacks drop well below $1B.
Why it matters: Returning $2.2B to shareholders is crucial. Slow progress may worry investors.
Worry ifProgress report shows less than $1B returned to shareholders by mid-2026.
Less concerning ifProgress report shows over $1B returned to shareholders by mid-2026.
Why it matters: Keeping this EPS guidance shows steady earnings and trust in performance.
Supportive ifEPS reported in Q4 2026 falls within the $4.79-$4.89 range.
Worry ifEPS guidance revised down below $4.79.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$152 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $354 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,346 loss on $10,000 · 23.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Completing this acquisition shows Emerson's focus on growth. It helps expand its automation software.
Supportive ifThe company said it completed the AspenTech purchase. It paid $240 for each share.
Worry ifA delay or stop in the AspenTech acquisition would be a concern.
Why it matters: Progress on the $1B share buyback plan shows management wants to give cash to shareholders. This can make investors feel better.
Supportive ifShare repurchases reported at or above $500M by year-end.
Worry ifShare buybacks under $500M by the end of the year.
Why it matters: Meeting this growth target would indicate effective sales strategies and strong market demand. It is vital for overall performance.
Supportive ifNet sales growth reported at 5.5% or higher.
Worry ifNet sales growth reported below 5.5%.
Why it matters: This acquisition is important for Emerson's growth. It could help their automation software.
Supportive ifWatch for an official announcement about the acquisition. Also, check on how integration is going.
Worry ifWatch for delays or failure to finalize the acquisition.
Why it matters: Changes in dividend policy show management's confidence. This reflects cash flow and financial health.
Watch forThere is an announcement of an increase in the quarterly dividend payout.
Also watch forThe company announced it will cut or stop the quarterly dividend payment.
Why it matters: If sector growth speeds up, it could benefit Emerson's sales. Slower growth may hurt.
Watch forSector revenue growth speeds up to over 10% each year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth slows below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping EPS guidance shows steady earnings. This helps build investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement confirms Q4 EPS guidance remains within the range of $4.79 to $4.89.
Worry ifEPS guidance is lowered below $4.79. This means weaker earnings are expected.
Why it matters: Steady order growth shows strong demand. This supports revenue expectations.
Supportive ifUnderlying orders growth reported above 5% for the next quarter.
Worry ifOrder growth drops below 5%. This shows demand is weakening.
Why it matters: Hitting this cash flow target shows strong operations. It also shows good capital use.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported in Q4 is between $3.5 billion and $3.6 billion.
Worry ifFree cash flow drops below $3.5 billion. This shows there are operational challenges.