Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$8.09 → $8.06 · observed estimates
Emerson Electric (EMR)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$162.61-4.59%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
8.09 → 8.06 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for EMR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Return $2.2B to shareholders in 2026 | The company plans to return $2.2B to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. | Intact | Shareholder returns fall below $2.2B in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$8.09 → $8.06 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
EMR is a large industrial business with a multi-year portfolio transformation focused on automation software. Its thesis is intact after recent earnings beats, though earnings quality is rated fragile and recent overall performance is neutral.
The evidence describes EMR as stretched, despite a valuation signal that it is cheap versus peers. The expectations gap is 0.15, and the evidence does not explain that measure further, so the market’s precise assumptions are unclear.
In the near term, management is maintaining 2026 free-cash-flow guidance, while delivery is mixed; its shareholder-return plan is on track and the AspenTech transaction remains a priority to watch. Three recent earnings beats support the thesis, but peer misses and a past deep miss point to some execution risk, even with a low estimated miss risk.
For the multi-year view, the key test is whether the AspenTech transaction and integration strengthen Emerson’s automation software business. Near term, guidance cuts would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from industrial peers such as GEV, PH, and TT would support the sector backdrop.
The 1-to-3-year thesis remains intact, supported by recent earnings beats and steady management priorities, but fragile earnings quality, a sector headwind, and stretched valuation leave little room for execution to falter. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Emerson Electric's published investment case. The stated target is >=4.79 USD_PER_SHARE. |
| Under Pressure |
| EPS guidance falls below $4.79 for FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve free cash flow of $3.5B-$3.6B | It targets $3.5B to $3.6B free cash flow in 2026. | Under Pressure | Free cash flow falls below $3.5B in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near 3-4% YoY | A primary condition in Emerson Electric's published investment case. The stated target is >=3% YoY. | Under Pressure | YoY revenue growth falls below 3% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 7.03% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=3% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 20267.028333 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$21.03B → $21.05B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $8.09 | $21,028,210,312 | 9 / 19 |
| 2026-10-02 | $8.09 | $21,028,210,312 | 9 / 19 |
| 2026-10-03 | $8.09 | $21,028,222,724 | 9 / 19 |
| 2026-10-04 | $8.09 | $21,028,222,724 | 9 / 19 |
| 2026-10-05 | $8.09 | $21,028,222,724 | 9 / 19 |
| 2026-10-06 | $8.09 | $21,028,222,724 | 9 / 19 |
| 2026-10-07 | $8.09 | $21,024,752,136 | 9 / 19 |
| 2026-10-08 | $8.08 | $21,024,752,136 | 9 / 19 |
| 2026-10-09 | $8.08 | $21,024,752,136 | 9 / 19 |
| 2026-10-10 | $8.08 | $21,024,752,136 | 9 / 19 |
| 2026-10-11 | $8.08 | $21,023,932,572 | 9 / 20 |
| 2026-10-12 | $8.08 | $21,023,932,572 | 9 / 20 |
| 2026-10-13 | $8.08 | $21,023,932,572 | 9 / 20 |
| 2026-10-14 | $8.08 | $21,023,932,572 | 9 / 20 |
| 2026-10-15 | $8.08 | $21,023,932,572 | 9 / 20 |
| 2026-10-16 | $8.08 | $21,023,932,572 | 9 / 20 |
| 2026-10-17 | $8.08 | $21,023,932,572 | 9 / 20 |
| 2026-10-18 | $8.09 | $21,038,915,075 | 9 / 20 |
| 2026-10-19 | $8.09 | $21,038,915,075 | 9 / 20 |
| 2026-10-20 | $8.09 | $21,038,915,075 | 9 / 20 |
| 2026-10-21 | $8.09 | $21,038,915,075 | 9 / 20 |
| 2026-10-22 | $8.09 | $21,038,915,075 | 9 / 20 |
| 2026-10-23 | $8.09 | $21,038,915,075 | 9 / 20 |
| 2026-10-24 | $8.09 | $21,038,915,075 | 9 / 20 |
| 2026-10-25 | $8.09 | $21,038,915,075 | 9 / 20 |
| 2026-10-26 | $8.09 | $21,038,906,397 | 9 / 20 |
| 2026-10-27 | $8.09 | $21,038,906,397 | 9 / 20 |
| 2026-10-28 | $8.08 | $21,048,567,604 | 9 / 20 |
| 2026-10-29 | $8.08 | $21,048,567,604 | 9 / 20 |
| 2026-10-30 | $8.08 | $21,048,567,604 | 9 / 20 |
| 2026-10-31 | $8.08 | $21,048,567,604 | 9 / 20 |
| 2026-11-01 | $8.08 | $21,048,567,604 | 9 / 20 |
| 2026-11-02 | $8.08 | $21,048,567,604 | 9 / 20 |
| 2026-11-03 | $8.08 | $21,048,540,471 | 9 / 20 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.06 | $21,046,040,471 | 10 / 20 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.