Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Ensign Group (ENSG)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$182.39-3.14%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
8.55 → 8.77 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ENSG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Stock repurchase authorization increases to $100 million | Management steadily increases net income, hitting nearly $100 million in Q1 2026. | Intact | Stock repurchase authorization is reduced below $40 million | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a healthcare growth and acquisition story, with a sector tailwind and recent financial performance rated strong. The long-term thesis is intact, but sustained results from acquired operations and continued delivery on care and occupancy priorities matter.
Valuation is described as aligned with the business setup, and the priced-in assessment is tagged justified with low fragility. ENSG carries a 1.17 premium versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, so the evidence does not point to a clear cushion from low expectations.
Near-term results have been strong, including a recent earnings beat, higher revenue, and reported gains in occupancy and skilled-mix revenue. Management has stayed focused on acquisitions and operating improvement, though recently acquired operations still need to perform over time. The near-term miss risk is assessed as low, but weakening job growth and a reversal of recently raised guidance are key risks.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on disciplined acquisitions adding durable growth and on continued improvement in occupancy, skilled mix, and care quality. A guidance cut after the recent increase would damage credibility, while weaker job growth could weigh on healthcare names. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.
ENSG’s multi-year view remains intact, with strong recent execution and a supportive sector backdrop balanced by acquisition, guidance, and labor-market risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Management steadily increases net income, hitting nearly $100 million in Q1 2026. |
| Intact |
| Net income falls below $80.28 million in Q1 2026 |
Net income: $104.262M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $99.67 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 27, 2026104,262,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improves to at least $124.85 million in Q1 2026 | Profit margins improve with operating income rising to $124.85 million in Q1 2026. | Intact | Operating income falls below $101.37 million in Q1 2026 | Operating income: $137.989M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $124.85 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 27, 2026137,989,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches about $5.83 billion in FY 2026 | Ensign Group grows revenue about 14% a year, reaching $5.83 billion in 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $5.06 billion in FY 2026 | Revenue: $1.484B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.83 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 27, 20261,484,002,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$8.33 → $8.77 · observed estimates
$6.43B → $6.66B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $8.33 | $6,432,314,430 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $8.33 | $6,432,314,430 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $8.33 | $6,432,314,430 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $8.33 | $6,432,314,430 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $8.40 | $6,457,070,427 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $8.40 | $6,457,070,430 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $8.40 | $6,457,070,430 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $8.45 | $6,474,676,027 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $8.45 | $6,474,676,027 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $8.55 | $6,505,096,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $8.55 | $6,505,490,950 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $8.55 | $6,505,490,950 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $8.55 | $6,505,490,950 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $8.56 | $6,539,090,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $8.56 | $6,539,090,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $8.56 | $6,539,090,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $8.56 | $6,539,090,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $8.56 | $6,539,090,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $8.56 | $6,539,090,550 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $8.59 | $6,565,952,650 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $8.59 | $6,565,952,650 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $8.59 | $6,565,952,650 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $8.59 | $6,565,952,650 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $8.59 | $6,565,952,650 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $8.59 | $6,565,952,650 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $8.59 | $6,565,952,650 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $8.59 | $6,565,952,650 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $8.59 | $6,565,952,650 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $8.59 | $6,565,952,650 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $8.59 | $6,565,952,650 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $8.59 | $6,565,952,650 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $8.59 | $6,565,952,650 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $8.59 | $6,565,952,650 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $8.59 | $6,565,952,650 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $8.59 | $6,566,353,050 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $8.67 | $6,614,243,050 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $8.70 | $6,626,475,495 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $8.70 | $6,626,475,495 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $8.70 | $6,626,475,495 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $8.70 | $6,626,475,495 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $8.70 | $6,626,475,495 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.77 | $6,658,151,095 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.