Ensign Group (ENSG)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$170.79-0.76%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ENSG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 13.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ENSG — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-20
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 19, 2026, The Ensign Group, Inc. ("Ensign" or the "Company"), Standard Bearer Healthcare REIT, Inc., Truist Bank, as administrative agent, and the lenders party thereto entered into the Fourth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the Credit Facility) which amended and restated the Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement as of October 1, 2019, increasing the existing revolving credit facility by $200.0 million to an aggregate principa…
Why it matters: Fewer occupied spaces can lower revenue. This may show problems with operations.
Worry ifQ3 occupancy rates drop below 84%. This shows trouble attracting residents.
Less concerning ifOccupancy rates stay above 84%. This shows strong demand for services.
Why it matters: If growth reaches 20%, it shows that management is focused on making more money. This comes from being more efficient.
Supportive ifOperating income growth reported at or above 20% year over year for Q2.
Worry ifOperating income growth reported below 10% year over year for Q2.
Why it matters: Starting the buyback program shows trust in the company's financial health.
Supportive ifCompany announces the start of its $100 million stock repurchase program.
Worry ifNo announcements regarding the stock repurchase program by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: New acquisitions can boost growth and market presence. This helps the long-term plan.
Supportive ifIf there are at least 5 new acquisitions in Q3, it shows strong growth.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions announced in Q3, suggesting a slowdown in growth plans.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$90 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $242 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,181 loss on $10,000 · 31.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher occupancy rates show more demand. This means better efficiency.
Supportive ifSame Facility occupancy is over 85% for two quarters in a row.
Worry ifOccupancy rates fall below 84% for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Slower revenue growth may mean less demand or problems with operations.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth below 17% year over year would indicate a significant slowdown.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth meets or exceeds 17% year over year, indicating strong demand.
Why it matters: More buybacks can show management's confidence and help the share price.
Supportive ifThey announced buybacks of at least $20 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo big buyback activity reported. This may show a lack of confidence.
Why it matters: If net income grows over 15%, it shows that strategic initiatives are working. This would support management's focus on increasing net income.
Supportive ifNet income growth reported above 15% year over year for Q2.
Worry ifNet income growth reported below 5% year over year for Q2.
Why it matters: New acquisitions can drive growth and expand market presence. More deals signal confidence.
Supportive ifManagement announces at least 5 new acquisitions by the end of Q2 2026.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions are announced by the end of Q2 2026.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth falls below its median, it could signal a slowdown in the growth phase. This would impact Ensign's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median for the last quarter.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median for the last quarter.
Why it matters: Higher occupancy rates mean strong demand. They also show good management of the homes.
Supportive ifOccupancy rates for the same facilities are over 85% in Q2.
Worry ifOccupancy rates for the same facilities drop below 82% in Q2.
Why it matters: Higher earnings guidance shows strong financial performance. It also shows confidence in growth.
Supportive ifAnnual earnings guidance raised to above $7.85 per diluted share.
Worry ifAnnual earnings guidance remains at or below $7.75 per diluted share.
Why it matters: Strong Medicare revenue growth shows good service delivery. It also shows market demand.
Supportive ifQ3 Medicare revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 Medicare revenue growth is below 9%.