Reading ENVA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ENVA free→Reading ENVA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ENVA free→NYSEFinancialsCredit ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and risk is elevated, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, ENVA is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 21% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. What it hinges on includes the potential for guidance cuts, which could negatively impact estimates and the stock. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $189.33. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $189 ENVA trades at 14× p/e — 1.3× the 11× p/e peer median, and above its own 9× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $151 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 25% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 18%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 5.83x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.97 → $3.96 (-0.1% / 30d). 3 raised, 3 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$160.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$345.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,475.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If operating income growth is below 5%, it shows cost management problems. This could worry investors about profits.
Confirms:Operating income growth is below 5% compared to last year.
Disproves:Operating income growth reported at or above 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ENVA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 23, 2026, Enova International, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release to announce its consolidated financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information included or incorporated by reference in this Current Report on Form 8-K under this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Finance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ENVA Enova International, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | full | elevated |
AXP American Express | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
COF Capital One | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 37 of 100 | fair | moderate |
SYF Synchrony Financial | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AFRM Affirm Holdings Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 3 of 100 | expensive | high |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Complete the acquisition of Grasshopper Bank by the second half of 2026, pending regulatory approval.
Position the company to achieve significant financial outcomes in 2026 and beyond.
Focus on improving operating income through strategic initiatives and cost management.
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Focus on increasing net income through revenue growth and cost efficiency.
Why it matters: Closing this deal is key for Enova's growth strategy. It could boost their market position.
Confirms:An official announcement will confirm the deal is done.
Disproves:Look for news about delays or problems with the deal.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops below 12%, it signals a slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact investor confidence in Enova's growth strategy.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 12% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth stays at or above 12% year over year.
Why it matters: If net income growth is below 10%, it suggests that revenue and cost improvements are not translating into profits. This could worry investors.
Confirms:Net income growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Net income growth reported at or above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop below median growth could signal trouble in the financial sector and for Enova.
Confirms:Enova's revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Enova's revenue growth remains above 10% year over year.