Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Evolus, Inc. (EOLS)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04
$6.79-9.04%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.26 → 0.33 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for EOLS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve low- to mid-single digit Adjusted EBITDA margin in 2026 | It plans a low- to mid-single digit profit margin. | Improving | Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below low single digits in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Our fourth consecutive quarter of positive Adjusted EBITDA reflects our ability to sustain growth while maintaining expense discipline and investing in the portfolio.” “• Updates non-GAAP operating expenses for the full-year 2026 to between $210 million and $213 million, from $212 million to $216 million, representing a 0% to 2% growth over 2025 non-GAAP operating expenses, and reflecting continued disciplined expense management while supporting strategic investments in long-term portfolio expansion.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented, loss-making business with elevated risk, rather than an established compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, though the recent signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.
The evidence describes EOLS as cheap versus peers, with no signs that the setup is fragile. Confidence in that valuation read is low, and the expectations gap suggests the market may already reflect more than the business is currently delivering.
Near term, management is on track to reaffirm 2026 revenue guidance and reach a low- to mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA margin, a measure of operating profit adjusted for certain items. Revenue has grown in recent quarters, while recent results were in line and the overall financial signal is now mixed. Risks include a reversal of the recent guidance increase and weaker employment data, which could raise recession concerns.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on continued revenue growth, expense control, and progress commercializing Profhilo, whose status is mixed. A guidance cut after the recent increase would challenge management credibility, while continued strength among healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop.
The multi-year view remains intact, but it is a higher-risk, loss-making growth story whose case depends on delivering guidance and improving profitability. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Move from negative to positive EPS by 2027 | A supporting condition in Evolus, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.24. | Improving | EPS remains negative in FY27 | Diluted EPS: $-0.19 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.24. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026-0.19 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue between $327M and $337M in 2026 | A primary condition in Evolus, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is revenue between $327M and $337M. | Intact | revenue falls below $327M in FY26 | Revenue: $77.952M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: revenue between $327M and $337M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202677,952,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.27 → $0.33 · observed estimates
$0.39B → $0.39B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.27 | $387,666,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.24 | $387,672,140 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.27 | $387,666,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.24 | $387,672,140 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.27 | $387,666,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.24 | $387,672,140 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.27 | $387,666,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.27 | $387,666,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.27 | $387,666,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.24 | $387,672,140 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.24 | $387,672,140 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.24 | $387,672,140 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.27 | $387,666,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.24 | $387,672,140 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.23 | $391,148,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.24 | $389,191,710 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.24 | $389,191,710 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.23 | $391,148,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.24 | $391,163,140 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.26 | $391,148,860 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.23 | $391,148,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.23 | $391,148,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.23 | $391,148,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.23 | $391,148,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.23 | $391,148,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.23 | $391,148,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.23 | $391,148,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.21 | $390,679,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.21 | $390,679,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.21 | $390,679,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.21 | $390,679,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.21 | $390,679,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.21 | $390,679,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.25 | $391,429,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.25 | $391,429,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.25 | $391,429,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.25 | $391,429,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.25 | $391,429,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.25 | $391,429,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.25 | $391,429,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.25 | $391,429,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.25 | $391,429,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.25 | $391,429,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.25 | $391,429,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.25 | $391,429,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.25 | $391,429,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.25 | $391,429,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.25 | $391,429,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.25 | $391,429,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.25 | $391,429,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.25 | $391,429,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.25 | $391,429,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.25 | $391,429,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.25 | $391,429,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.25 | $391,429,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.26 | $392,200,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.26 | $392,200,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.26 | $392,200,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.26 | $392,200,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.26 | $392,200,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.26 | $392,200,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.26 | $392,200,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.26 | $392,200,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.26 | $392,200,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.26 | $392,200,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.26 | $392,200,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.26 | $392,200,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.26 | $392,200,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.26 | $392,200,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.26 | $392,200,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.26 | $392,200,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.26 | $392,200,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.26 | $392,200,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.26 | $392,200,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.26 | $392,200,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.26 | $392,200,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.26 | $392,200,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.26 | $392,200,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.26 | $392,200,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.26 | $392,200,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.26 | $392,200,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.25 | $392,199,933 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.26 | $392,200,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.26 | $392,200,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.33 | $392,203,267 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.33 | $392,203,267 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.33 | $392,203,267 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.33 | $392,203,267 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.33 | $392,203,267 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.33 | $392,203,267 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.33 | $392,203,267 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.33 | $392,203,267 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.33 | $392,203,267 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.33 | $392,203,267 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.33 | $392,203,267 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.33 | $392,203,267 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.33 | $392,203,267 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.33 | $392,203,267 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.33 | $392,203,267 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.33 | $392,203,267 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.33 | $392,203,267 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.33 | $392,203,267 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.33 | $392,203,267 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.33 | $392,203,267 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.