Evolus, Inc. (EOLS)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
$9.30+2.76%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EOLS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -66.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 17.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 83.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
EOLS — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-05
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: Making a profit is important for Evolus. It affects how investors feel.
Supportive ifEvolus reports net income of at least $0.13M in Q4 2025.
Worry ifEvolus reports a net loss in Q4 2025.
Why it matters: FDA approval for Profhilo could boost sales and market presence.
Supportive ifSales from Profhilo exceed $10M in the first quarter post-approval.
Worry ifSales from Profhilo are below $5M in the first quarter post-approval.
Why it matters: This shows Evolysse is doing well in the market. It helps Evolus grow.
Supportive ifEvolysse revenue makes up more than 10% of total revenue in 2026.
Worry ifEvolysse revenue makes up less than 10% of total revenue in 2026.
Why it matters: Evolus aims for $327M to $337M in 2026. Meeting this target is key for growth.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported at least $80M, showing strong growth towards the annual target.
Worry ifQ2 revenue was below $70M. This shows trouble in meeting the annual target.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how revenue and profits are doing.
Watch forThe earnings report shows improvements in revenue and margin.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows revenue drops or margin declines.
Why it matters: This would prove the expansion plan works. It would show success in international markets.
Supportive ifEstyme HA gel revenue contributes 10% or more to total revenue in Q3 or Q4 2026.
Worry ifEstyme HA gel revenue is still under 10%. This shows slower acceptance in the market.
Why it matters: This growth rate confirms ongoing market share gains and management's revenue guidance.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth meets or exceeds 11% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 11% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Revenue growth matches what management expected. This shows the business is moving forward.
Supportive ifIn Q2 2026, revenue was over $80 million. This supports double-digit growth.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, revenue was under $75 million. This shows growth is facing challenges.
Why it matters: Better margins show good cost management. This means the company is working efficiently.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin reaches at least 5% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin stayed below 2% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Delays could hurt revenue estimates. They may also affect market position in skin quality.
Worry ifProfhilo commercialization in the U.S. begins as planned in 2026.
Less concerning ifProfhilo's launch is delayed past 2026.
Why it matters: Approval would enhance the product portfolio and drive future revenue growth.
Supportive ifFDA approval granted for Evolysse Sculpt in Q4 2026.
Worry ifFDA denies approval or delays the review process beyond Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Confirming the raised guidance signals strong growth momentum and market share gains.
Supportive ifQ3 net revenue was between $330 million and $337 million. This matches the guidance.
Worry ifQ3 net revenue is below $330 million. This shows weaker performance.
Why it matters: A higher contribution means better growth in international markets. It also shows that people like the product.
Supportive ifEstyme revenue exceeds 12% of total revenue in Q3 or Q4 2026.
Worry ifEstyme revenue is still under 10% of total revenue.
Why it matters: A successful launch would prove the new product strategy and grow market presence.
Supportive ifProfhilo launched in the U.S. market with positive sales feedback by mid-2027.
Worry ifProfhilo launch may have big delays or poor market response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$215 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $497 loss on $10,000 · 5.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,856 loss on $10,000 · 48.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.