Evolus, Inc. (EOLS)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04
$6.79-9.04%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EOLS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -71.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 20.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 91.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers
EOLS — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-05
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: Evolus tied its HA gel sales plan to a possible Q4 approval. Its 2026 guidance assumes no Sculpt sales.
Watch forThe FDA approves Evolysse Sculpt by December 31, 2026.
Also watch forThe FDA rejects the product or the review remains open after December 31, 2026.
Why it matters: Repeat orders support the launch of Evolysse and the broader sales platform. Lower reorder rates could signal weaker customer demand.
Watch forThe next company update says more than 70% of customers reordered.
Also watch forThe next company update says fewer than 70% of customers reordered.
Why it matters: Evolus raised its 2026 revenue range to $330 million–$337 million. Q3 results will show if growth stays on track.
Watch forOn the November 4 earnings call, management keeps 2026 revenue guidance at $330 million–$337 million. Q3 revenue growth stays near the first-half pace.
Also watch forManagement cuts the 2026 revenue range below $330 million. Or Q3 revenue falls below the year-ago quarter.
Why it matters: The expanded license adds three markets, but sales depend on local approvals. Evolus named 2028 for launch.
Watch forEvolus reports the needed approvals. Plans to launch in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand remain on track for 2028.
Also watch forEvolus reports a regulatory delay. The planned 2028 launch moves to a later date.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$225 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $550 loss on $10,000 · 5.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,654 loss on $10,000 · 46.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.