Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
Edgewell Personal Care (EPC)
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$28.56-3.71%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.09 → 2.11 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for EPC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend payments | The company maintains dividend payments at $0.15 per share. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.15 in any quarter | Dividend per share: $0.15 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.15 per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 20260.15 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
EPC is a small-cap consumer staples company in a sector with a supportive backdrop, but it is currently loss-making. The thesis is in a watch state: sales growth has resumed, though recent performance remains below its industry group.
EPC is cheap versus peers, and the expectations gap is close to neutral, suggesting expectations are not markedly out of line with the evidence. Valuation has fallen recently, while measured fragility is low; the evidence does not show that a strong recovery is already assumed.
In the near term, organic net sales growth has returned, rising 1.1% in the second quarter after a 0.5% decline in the first, with management citing better North America results and traction in priority brands. Gross margin pressure eased but persisted, as inflation and tariffs partly offset productivity savings. A recent earnings beat is encouraging, but the company remains loss-making and its small size and history of a deep miss warrant caution.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued organic sales growth and meaningful progress on margins while management maintains execution. A guidance reversal after a recent increase would damage credibility, while weaker jobs data could weigh on cyclical consumer businesses. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from major consumer staples peers would support the sector backdrop.
Over the next one to three years, EPC’s improving sales trend is a positive, but persistent margin pressure, losses, and elevated risk leave the thesis unproven. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2 Capital Allocation On August 5, 2026, the Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per common share for the third fiscal quarter of fiscal 2026.” “During the third quarter of fiscal 2026, the Company paid dividends totaling $7.0 million to stockholders.”
Gross profit improvement | Edgewell Personal Care is improving profit margins with gross profit rising from $161M to $216.9M in one quarter. | Intact | gross profit falls below $161M in any quarter after Q2 2026 | Gross profit: $242.5M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $216.9M gross profit in Q2 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 2026242,500,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Positive cash from operations | Cash from operations turned positive to $54.3M in Q2 2026 from a negative $125.9M in Q1. | Intact | cash from operations falls below $0 in any quarter after Q2 2026 | Cash from operations: $118.7M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $54.3M cash from operations in Q2 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 2026118,700,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain positive revenue growth | A primary condition in Edgewell Personal Care's published investment case. The stated target is > 0% revenue growth year-over-year. | Intact | revenue growth falls below 0% year-over-year | Revenue growth: -9.1% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: > 0% revenue growth year-over-year. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 5, 2026-9.103954 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.09 → $2.11 · observed estimates
$2.04B → $2.04B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $2.09 | $2,044,127,600 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.09 | $2,044,127,600 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.09 | $2,044,127,600 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.09 | $2,044,127,600 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.09 | $2,044,127,600 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.10 | $2,044,129,633 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.10 | $2,044,129,633 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.10 | $2,044,129,633 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.10 | $2,044,129,633 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.10 | $2,044,129,633 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.10 | $2,044,129,633 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.10 | $2,044,129,633 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.10 | $2,044,129,633 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.10 | $2,044,129,633 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.10 | $2,044,129,633 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.25 | $2,041,349,151 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.25 | $2,041,349,151 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.11 | $2,041,349,151 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.11 | $2,041,349,151 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.11 | $2,041,349,151 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.11 | $2,041,349,151 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.11 | $2,041,349,151 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.11 | $2,041,349,151 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.11 | $2,041,349,151 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.11 | $2,041,349,151 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.11 | $2,041,349,151 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.11 | $2,041,349,151 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.11 | $2,041,349,151 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.11 | $2,041,349,151 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.11 | $2,041,349,151 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.11 | $2,041,349,151 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.11 | $2,041,349,151 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.11 | $2,041,349,151 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.11 | $2,041,349,151 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.11 | $2,041,349,151 | 1 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.