Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Equity Bancshares, Inc. (EQBK)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$48.81-2.32%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.42 → 5.41 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for EQBK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.18 per share | Equity Bancshares keeps paying a steady dividend of $0.18 per share. | Improving | quarterly dividend falls below $0.18 per share in any quarter of 2026 | Dividend per share: $0.18 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.18 per share quarterly. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 20260.18 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a regional banking growth and acquisition-integration story, not a clear turnaround or deep-value case. The long-term thesis is on watch: execution has been encouraging in some areas, but recent financial performance remains well below the industry cohort.
The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a peer premium of 1.01, while the expectations gap is slightly negative at -0.1. Pricing is tagged as justified and fragility is low, so the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations, but it also leaves limited support from relative valuation.
Near term, recent results are weak relative to the industry, despite an October earnings beat and a rise in company momentum. Over the multi-year view, organic growth and integration after the Frontier merger are on track, and the dividend increase was delivered; completing the Lincoln Bancorp merger remains a mixed-status priority. Near-term miss risk is described as low, though the company’s smaller size and a deep miss in its recent history are cautions.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued organic growth, effective merger integration, and completing the Lincoln Bancorp merger on the expected Q4 2026 timeline. A guidance cut or Fed rate cuts would be unfavorable near term, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, execution offers a credible growth path, but weak recent performance and an expensive peer valuation keep the thesis on watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The dividend payout ratio year to date was 17.3%, within the Company's 10 to 20% target range.” “The dividend payout ratio year to date was 17.4%, within the Company's 10 to 20% target range.”
Earnings per share near $5.05 in 2026 | Earnings per share are expected near $5.05 in 2026. | Broken | EPS falls below $5.00 in FY 2026 | Diluted EPS: $1.27 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.00 EPS for FY 2026. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Aug 7, 20261.27 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Successful integration of Frontier Holdings LLC merger | The merger with Frontier Holdings LLC expands its operations. | Intact | Merger integration delays or losses reported through 2026 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain positive operating income each quarter | Operating income stays positive, around $22 million per quarter. | Intact | operating income is negative in more than one quarter in 2026 | Operating income: $33.741M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $22 million per quarter. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 202633,741,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Non-interest expense for the second half of 2026 is expected in the range of $94 to $98 million.” “Non-interest expense for the fourth quarter, exclusive of the impact of Lincoln, is expected in the range of $47.0 to $48.0 million.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.25 → $5.41 · observed estimates
$0.35B → $0.41B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.25 | $348,511,267 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.25 | $348,510,830 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.25 | $348,511,267 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.25 | $348,510,830 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.25 | $348,511,267 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.25 | $348,510,830 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.25 | $348,511,267 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.25 | $348,510,830 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.25 | $348,511,267 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.25 | $348,510,830 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.25 | $348,510,830 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.25 | $348,511,267 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.25 | $348,510,830 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.25 | $348,511,267 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.25 | $348,511,267 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.25 | $348,510,830 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.25 | $348,510,830 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.25 | $348,511,267 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $5.25 | $348,510,830 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.25 | $348,510,830 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.25 | $348,510,830 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.25 | $348,511,267 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.25 | $348,511,267 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.25 | $348,511,267 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.25 | $348,511,267 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.25 | $348,511,267 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.25 | $348,511,267 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.25 | $348,511,267 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.25 | $348,511,267 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.25 | $348,511,267 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.25 | $348,511,267 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.25 | $348,511,267 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.25 | $348,511,267 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.25 | $348,511,267 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.25 | $348,511,267 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.25 | $348,511,267 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.25 | $348,511,267 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.25 | $348,511,267 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.25 | $348,511,267 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.25 | $348,511,267 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.25 | $348,511,267 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.25 | $348,511,267 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.29 | $360,494,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.37 | $393,111,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.37 | $393,111,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.37 | $393,111,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.37 | $393,111,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.41 | $417,191,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.41 | $417,191,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.41 | $417,191,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.41 | $417,191,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.41 | $417,191,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.41 | $417,191,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.41 | $417,191,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.41 | $417,191,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.41 | $417,191,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.41 | $417,191,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.41 | $417,191,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.41 | $417,191,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.41 | $417,191,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.41 | $417,191,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.41 | $417,191,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.41 | $417,191,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.41 | $417,124,833 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.41 | $417,124,833 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.41 | $417,124,833 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.41 | $417,124,833 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.41 | $417,124,833 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.41 | $417,124,833 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.41 | $417,124,833 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.42 | $417,608,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.42 | $417,608,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.42 | $417,608,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.42 | $417,608,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.42 | $417,608,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.42 | $417,608,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.42 | $417,608,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.42 | $417,608,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.42 | $417,608,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.42 | $417,608,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.42 | $417,608,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.42 | $417,608,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.42 | $417,608,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.42 | $417,608,167 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.43 | $413,427,167 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.43 | $413,427,167 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.41 | $413,210,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.41 | $413,210,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.41 | $413,210,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.41 | $413,210,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.41 | $413,210,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.41 | $413,210,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.41 | $413,210,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.41 | $413,210,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.41 | $413,210,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.41 | $413,210,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.41 | $413,210,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.41 | $413,210,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.41 | $413,210,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.41 | $413,210,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.41 | $413,210,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.41 | $413,210,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.41 | $413,210,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.41 | $413,210,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-05 | $5.41 | $413,210,500 | 6 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 3 recorded
2 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.