EquipmentShare.com Inc (EQPT)
NASDAQIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$19.55+7.77%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EQPT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -21.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
EQPT — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation
Dated 2026-07-02
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant The information set forth above under
Why it matters: The industrial sector is getting older. Signs of revenue growth could mean better results for EquipmentShare.
Supportive ifRevenue growth in the industrial sector exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Updates on capex will show if spending aligns with the $2.106B to $2.328B target.
Watch forCapex reported in Q2 earnings is within the $2.106B to $2.328B range.
Also watch forCapex reported in Q2 earnings is below $2.106B.
Why it matters: Updates on buybacks may show strong cash flow and smart spending.
Supportive ifThey will announce share buybacks in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the share buyback program.
Why it matters: Updates will show if the OWN Program meets the 55% to 60% target of Owned Equipment Cost.
Watch forOWN Program makes up more than 60% of Owned Equipment Cost.
Also watch forOWN Program makes up less than 55% of Owned Equipment Cost.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$356 on $10,000 · ±3.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $902 loss on $10,000 · 9.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,380 loss on $10,000 · 53.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This growth rate is key to confirming the company's strong demand and market share gains.
Worry ifQ3 rental segment revenue growth exceeds 33% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 rental segment revenue growth falls below 33% year over year.
Why it matters: Going beyond this guidance shows strong demand and good operations.
Supportive ifTotal revenue guidance for 2026 exceeds $5.254 billion.
Worry ifTotal revenue guidance for 2026 is revised down below $5.051 billion.
Why it matters: Active buybacks show that management trusts the stock. No buybacks may mean concerns about future results.
Supportive ifThere is an announcement of share buybacks under the $500 million program.
Worry ifNo share repurchases announced or done in the next six months.
Why it matters: The recent resignations of two directors may impact company strategy and governance. Investors will want to see how the board evolves.
Watch forAnnouncement of new board members or changes in board structure within the next quarter.
Also watch forNo new appointments or changes to the board structure after three months.
Why it matters: Early buybacks may show strong cash flow. They also show management's trust in the company.
Supportive ifShare repurchases started before the end of 2026.
Worry ifNo share repurchases initiated by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows successful growth. It could lead to more revenue.
Supportive ifThe number of rental locations reaches 435 by year-end.
Worry ifRental locations stay below 427 by year-end.
Why it matters: Staying within this capex range is crucial for maintaining growth plans. It affects future capacity.
Worry ifCapex reported at or below $500 million for Q2.
Less concerning ifCapex reported above $500 million for Q2.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth would support management's goal of reaching $5.682B in 2026.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 20% year over year, indicating strong demand.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is below 15% year over year, suggesting weakening sales.
Why it matters: This number shows how well the company makes money. It reflects how efficient the company is.
Worry ifAdjusted Core EBITDA exceeds $1.946 billion for Q3.
Less concerning ifAdjusted Core EBITDA falls below $1.946 billion for Q3.
Why it matters: This growth shows the company is expanding. It helps increase revenue.
Supportive ifTotal locations reach 435 by December 31, 2026.
Worry ifTotal locations will be under 427 by December 31, 2026.