Equity Residential (EQR)
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-09-04
$64.96+0.08%
Close 2026-09-03 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EQR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 15.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 24.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers
EQR — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-17
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Supplemental Indentures On the Closing Date, in connection with the Mergers, Merger Sub, ERP Operating Partnership and The Bank of New York Mellon, as trustee, entered into the Sixth Supplemental Indenture (the “Sixth Supplemental Indenture”) to the Indenture, dated as of January 16, 1998 (as supplemented by that certain First Supplemental Indenture dated as of January 20, 1998 (the “1998 First Supplemental Indenture”), by that certain Second Supple…
Why it matters: Changes in dividends show how much management trusts cash flow. This affects investors.
Watch forManagement says they will increase the dividend payout.
Also watch forManagement announces a cut in the dividend payout.
Why it matters: Growth in Funds from Operations (FFO) indicates strong cash flow and operational performance. It is a key measure for REITs.
Supportive ifFFO per share growth exceeds 2.0% in the next quarterly results.
Worry ifFFO per share growth falls below 1.0%.
Why it matters: Earnings reports show the company's financial health. Strong results can make investors more confident.
Watch forEarnings per share (EPS) exceeds $0.30 in Q2 2026.
Also watch forEPS falls below $0.28 in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings reports show how well a company is doing. They can change stock prices.
Watch forEarnings report shows a positive surprise in revenue or NOI growth.
Also watch forEarnings report shows a negative surprise in revenue or NOI growth.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$79 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $214 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,158 loss on $10,000 · 11.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This meeting will address the merger, and its outcome is crucial for the company's future. Approval could lead to a stronger combined entity.
Supportive ifShareholders approve the merger at the meeting.
Worry ifShareholders may reject the merger or strongly oppose it.
Why it matters: New projects show growth potential and smart use of capital for the portfolio.
Supportive ifTwo new development projects were announced. They will have many apartment units.
Worry ifNo new development projects announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The outcome could impact the company's finances and reputation. Investors need to know the risks.
Worry ifA good settlement or ruling in the class action lawsuit.
Less concerning ifA bad ruling or more liabilities from the lawsuit.
Why it matters: Higher expenses could hurt profits. Keeping expenses in check is crucial for financial stability.
Worry ifSame store expense growth is reported at 4% or lower in Q2.
Less concerning ifSame store expense growth exceeds 4% in Q2.
Why it matters: Court cases may hurt the company's reputation. They could also impact its finances.
Worry ifThe court case ends with a good settlement or dismissal for Equity Residential.
Less concerning ifThe court case leads to a big financial penalty or bad ruling for Equity Residential.
Why it matters: Leasing concessions affect revenue and profit. A decline shows stronger demand and better pricing.
Supportive ifLeasing concessions decrease by more than 15% compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifLeasing concessions increase or remain flat compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Higher NOI growth shows good cost management and strong operations.
Supportive ifNOI growth reported above 2.1% for Q3 2026.
Worry ifNOI growth reported below 1.5% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Increased NOI growth shows good cost management. This is important for making money.
Supportive ifSame store NOI growth exceeds 2% compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifSame store NOI growth is under 1.0%. This suggests there are operational issues.
Why it matters: The merger will create a larger company with more resources and market reach. This could improve growth and shareholder value.
Supportive ifThe merger closes as planned in the second half of 2026 with shareholder approvals.
Worry ifThe merger is delayed. It may not get the needed shareholder approvals.
Why it matters: Finishing these projects is key for future earnings. It shows what the company can do.
Supportive ifThey will announce the completion of at least 10,800 apartments under construction.
Worry ifThere may be delays in project completions or big cost overruns.
Why it matters: Higher revenue growth shows strong demand and good management. This helps future profits.
Supportive ifSame store revenue growth reported above 2.7% in upcoming quarters.
Worry ifSame store revenue growth reported below 2.1% in upcoming quarters.
Why it matters: A drop in occupancy may show weaker demand. This can hurt revenue and NOI.
Worry ifOccupancy rates stay above 96.2% in the next quarters.
Less concerning ifOccupancy rates fall below 96.2% in the next quarters.
Why it matters: The new name will show the merger's brand and direction. This affects how investors see it.
Watch forThe new name is announced prior to the merger closing.
Also watch forNo announcement of the new name before the merger closing.