Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Energy Recovery, Inc. (ERII)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - Pollution & Treatment ControlsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$6.71-6.42%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - Pollution & Treatment ControlsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.16 → 0.16 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ERII yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Share buyback program execution of up to $25 million | The company has a new CEO and a $25 million share buyback program. | Intact | Buyback program is cancelled or materially reduced | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk, loss-making industrial business with a watch-stage long-term thesis, not a demonstrated durable compounder. The signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed, and recent performance remains below its industry cohort.
ERII is valued cheaply versus peers, while the evidence suggests market expectations are already cautious. The priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low, but the valuation model has only medium confidence.
Near term, results may remain uneven: revenue fell sharply between Q2 2025 and Q2 2026, though Q1 revenue grew year over year, and the company has missed in recent quarters. Management is emphasizing 2026 revenue growth, winding down the CO2 retail grocery business, and managing a CEO transition; progress is mixed, with restructuring and impairment charges tied to the wind-down.
The near-term thesis would weaken if management cuts guidance, especially given the record of recent misses. Sector signals also matter: continued strong results from VLTO, CECO, and PCT could support an industrial-sector tailwind, while misses or lower guidance could remove it. Over the multi-year view, revenue progress and a completed leadership transition are key evidence to watch.
For the next 1 to 3 years, ERII is a watch-stage, higher-risk thesis with a peer-cheap valuation but limited evidence of steady fundamental progress. The case hinges on revenue execution, guidance, and sector conditions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Energy Recovery, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Interim CEO transitions to permanent CEO with clear strategy by end 2026. |
| Intact |
| Interim CEO replaced without clear plan or further leadership turmoil |
Qualitative: Interim CEO appointed 2026-06-11; no turmoil reported CEO transitioned to interim status in June 2026. Q3 earnings missed estimates, but no leadership instability or replacement occurred. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches at least $135 million in fiscal 2026 | Energy Recovery aims for revenue of at least $135 million in 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $120 million in FY26 | Revenue: $11.196M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $135 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202611,196,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.33 → $0.16 · observed estimates
$0.12B → $0.10B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.33 | $120,075,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.54 | $120,076,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.54 | $120,076,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.33 | $120,075,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.33 | $120,075,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.54 | $120,076,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.54 | $120,076,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.33 | $120,075,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.33 | $120,075,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.54 | $120,076,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.54 | $120,076,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.54 | $120,076,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.54 | $120,076,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.54 | $120,076,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.28 | $113,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.48 | $116,846,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.48 | $116,846,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.28 | $113,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.28 | $113,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.28 | $113,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.48 | $110,896,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.28 | $113,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.28 | $113,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.28 | $113,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.28 | $113,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.28 | $113,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.28 | $113,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.23 | $110,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.23 | $110,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.23 | $110,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.23 | $110,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.21 | $105,740,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.21 | $105,740,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.21 | $105,740,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.21 | $105,740,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.21 | $105,740,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.17 | $105,740,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.17 | $105,740,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.17 | $105,740,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.17 | $105,740,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.17 | $105,740,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.17 | $105,740,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.17 | $105,740,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.17 | $105,740,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.17 | $105,740,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.17 | $105,740,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.17 | $105,740,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.17 | $105,740,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.17 | $105,740,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.17 | $105,740,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.17 | $105,740,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.17 | $105,740,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.17 | $105,740,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.16 | $104,896,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.16 | $104,905,250 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.