Energy Recovery, Inc. (ERII)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - Pollution & Treatment ControlsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$7.63-0.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - Pollution & Treatment ControlsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ERII
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -41.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -9.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 32.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ERII — officer change
Dated 2026-07-13
Director — John Mitchell: Mr. John Mitchell was appointed to the Board of Directors.
Why it matters: A smooth CEO transition is important. It helps keep the company stable.
Watch forA permanent CEO is appointed within the next quarter.
Also watch forFinding a permanent CEO is taking longer than expected. This causes uncertainty.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows financial health. It means the company can fund operations.
Supportive ifCash provided by operations exceeds $16.3 million in Q3.
Worry ifCash from operations is below $16.3 million. This signals possible issues.
Why it matters: The share buyback may show management's trust in the stock. It could also help per-share numbers.
Supportive ifThe company repurchases at least $10 million of shares within the next 6 months.
Worry ifNo share repurchases occur within the next 6 months.
Why it matters: Higher restructuring charges may show bigger problems in leaving the CO2 grocery business. This could hurt overall financial health.
Worry ifRestructuring charges are over $2 million. This shows bigger challenges ahead.
Less concerning ifRestructuring charges are under $1 million. This means a smoother exit.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$187 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $360 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,814 loss on $10,000 · 58.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Continued revenue growth is key for the company's recovery and future plans. It shows if the business is stabilizing.
Supportive ifIn Q2 2026, revenue is over $10 million. This shows growth is continuing.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue falls below $9.7 million, showing a decline.
Why it matters: Improving revenue would indicate that management's growth target for 2026 is on track.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue exceeds $12.0 million, showing growth from Q2 2026.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $12.0 million. This shows a continued decline.
Why it matters: The wind down may change profit margins and financial health. Watching this helps check efficiency.
Worry ifGross margin stays the same or gets better in Q2 2026. This shows good management.
Less concerning ifGross margin declines further in Q2 2026, indicating ongoing issues from the wind down.
Why it matters: Having strong cash reserves is key for flexibility and growth.
Supportive ifCash and investments are over $100 million in the next report.
Worry ifCash and investments fell below $98 million. This may raise liquidity concerns.
Why it matters: The new CEO will shape the company's future direction and strategy. Investors will look for stability and vision.
Supportive ifThe company announces a new permanent CEO.
Worry ifThe search for a permanent CEO takes longer than expected with no updates.
Why it matters: Changes in the industrial sector could affect ERII's growth and market position.
Worry ifSector growth is speeding up again. This helps ERII.
Less concerning ifSector growth is slowing down. This hurts ERII's performance.
Why it matters: Starting the buyback may show management believes in the company's value. It could help the stock price.
Supportive ifThey announced share buybacks will happen in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo share buybacks initiated within the next quarter.
Why it matters: This would signal a recovery after a significant revenue drop in Q2. Management aims for growth despite recent challenges.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 20% compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth remains below 0% YoY.
Why it matters: If restructuring charges go down, it shows the company is managing the wind-down well.
Supportive ifRestructuring charges related to the CO2 business fall below $1M in Q3.
Worry ifRestructuring charges remain at or above $1.5M in Q3.