ESAB (ESAB)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$75.02+0.43%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ESAB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -29.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 37.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ESAB — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
of this report by reference. The Company has scheduled a conference call for 8:00 a.m. Eastern on August 6, 2026 to discuss its financial results. The information furnished in this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, exce…
Why it matters: Organic sales growth shows ESAB can handle market challenges. It shows strong demand and a good strategy.
Supportive ifCore organic sales growth reported above 2% for Q3 2026.
Worry ifCore organic sales growth reported below 2% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: An update on guidance will show how Eddyfi affects ESAB's finances. This is important for growth.
Supportive ifManagement will share updated full-year guidance during the Q3 earnings call. This will include Eddyfi's impact.
Worry ifNo updated guidance is provided during the Q3 earnings call.
Why it matters: Better margins mean better cost control and efficiency.
Supportive ifGross profit margin improves from 19.0% in Q1 2026.
Worry ifGross profit margin declines further from 19.0% in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Better cash flow from operations is key for ESAB's financial health and growth investments.
Supportive ifCash from operations exceeds $50 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifCash from operations remains below $50 million in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$220 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $436 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,508 loss on $10,000 · 45.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A stable EBITDA margin shows that the company manages costs well. It also shows that the company can keep making money.
Supportive ifCore adjusted EBITDA margin was above 19% for Q3 2026.
Worry ifCore adjusted EBITDA margin was below 19% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Better cash flow from operations is key for funding growth and paying down debt. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifCash from operations shows a consistent upward trend over the next two quarters.
Worry ifCash from operations may stay unstable or drop in the next two quarters.
Why it matters: Better margins show good cost control and pricing plans.
Supportive ifCore adjusted EBITDA margin improves from 19.0% in Q1 2026.
Worry ifCore adjusted EBITDA margin drops further from 19.0% in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in margins will show how well ESAB manages costs and pricing during inflation.
Worry ifGross profit margins improve or stay steady. This happens despite inflation pressures.
Less concerning ifGross profit margins fall further, showing cost pressures are not managed well.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth would show that ESAB is on track with its growth goals. It could also boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Sector growth signals could indicate a better environment for ESAB. This may support its revenue growth initiatives.
Watch forSector revenue growth speeds up to over 10% in June.
Also watch forSector revenue growth slows below 5% in June.
Why it matters: The new CFO's leadership can change ESAB's financial plans and actions. This may affect trust.
Watch forThe market reacts well to the CFO change, shown by a stock price rise after the news.
Also watch forThe market reacts poorly to the CFO change, shown by a stock price drop after the news.
Why it matters: Good results from Eddyfi would support the acquisition plan and boost growth chances.
Supportive ifEddyfi adds more than $10 million to Q3 revenue.
Worry ifEddyfi contributes less than $5 million to Q3 revenue.
Why it matters: Sales growth guidance shows ESAB's confidence. They can grow despite challenges.
Supportive ifESAB reaffirms core organic sales growth guidance of 2% to 4% for 2026.
Worry ifManagement lowers or takes back the core sales growth guidance for 2026.