Reading ESNT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ESNT free→Reading ESNT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ESNT free→NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating some inconsistency in cash backing reported profits. Management's recent track record is steady, while risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Compared with sector peers, ESNT is above typical, and its earnings yield is relatively high. Peer multiples imply a price about 27% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $58.38. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $58 ESNT trades at 8× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $88 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $62–$68. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 33% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.20x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.82 → $1.78 (-2.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 4 cut, 7 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 44% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 13.2% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$98.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$205.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,593.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
The valuation changed from inexpensive to fair. This indicates a shift in valuation. The sector backdrop remains a headwind. Risk is moderate.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in net income shows weaker financial performance. This happens with more competition.
Confirms:Q2 net income reported below $170 million.
Disproves:Q2 net income stays above $170 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ESNT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 8, 2026 , Essent Group Ltd. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in this report, including Exhibit 99.1, has been “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$62.00 – $68.00 (median $64.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-06-03
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ESNT Essent Group Ltd. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
RKT ROCKET COMPANIES INC | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 10 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ACT Enact Holdings, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | fair | moderate |
PFSI PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
UWMC UWM Holdings Corp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Essent Group aims to increase its dividend per share as part of its capital management strategy.
Essent Group focuses on maintaining robust cash flow from its core operations.
Essent Group is actively repurchasing common shares as part of its capital management strategy.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth slows, it could hurt Essent's performance. This is key for understanding the market conditions.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth drops below its median of around 12%.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays above its median.
Why it matters: High unemployment claims can mean economic problems. This may impact Essent's business.
Confirms:Unemployment claims rise above 300,000.
Disproves:Unemployment claims stay below 250,000.
Why it matters: A decline shows the mortgage market is slowing down. This will affect future revenues.
Confirms:Mortgage new insurance written falls below $10 billion.
Disproves:New mortgage insurance written stays above $10 billion.
Why it matters: An increase would show strong cash flow and commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Confirms:Management says they will raise the dividend to over $0.35 per share.
Disproves:Management keeps the dividend at $0.35 per share or lowers it.