Esquire Financial Holdings, Inc. (ESQ)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$118.96-1.88%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ESQ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 4.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 62.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 58.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
ESQ — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-30
Other Events. On July 30, 2026, Esquire Financial Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”), the financial holding company for Esquire Bank, National Association (“Esquire Bank” or the “Bank”), announced its regular quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share of common stock, payable on September 1, 2026, to each stockholder of record on August 14, 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is integrating Signature and managing costs. Strong results would support growth narratives.
Watch forEarnings per share exceeds $1.60 in Q3 2026.
Also watch forEarnings per share falls below $1.40 in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The merger is expected to enhance Esquire's growth in the Chicago market. Strong loan growth would show that the merger is beneficial.
Supportive ifLoan growth exceeds 20% on a year-over-year basis in the next quarter.
Worry ifLoan growth falls below 10% year-over-year in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Maintaining or increasing the dividend signals strong capital allocation and financial health. A cut could raise concerns.
Watch forThe company declares a dividend of at least $0.20 per share for the next quarter.
Also watch forThe company will cut the quarterly dividend to less than $0.20 per share.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth shows good financial health and management after the merger.
Supportive ifQ3 net income is over $14.3 million, showing strong results.
Worry ifQ3 net income growth is under 10%, showing possible issues in the new setup.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$131 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $314 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,607 loss on $10,000 · 16.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: An increase would show trust in financial health and a promise to shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement announces a dividend increase of at least 14% in the next quarter.
Worry ifIf there is no increase or a cut, it may mean financial trouble.
Why it matters: Progress on this merger could drive growth and market positioning for Esquire.
Supportive ifThey will share key milestones reached in the merger.
Worry ifDelays or problems in the merger may show possible challenges ahead.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact Esquire's performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of 15% over the last three years.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains at or above the median of 15%.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth shows good management and a successful merger.
Supportive ifQ3 net income grows more than 10% year over year, reflecting operational success.
Worry ifQ3 net income growth is below 5% year over year, signaling potential issues.
Why it matters: Closing the merger will enhance Esquire's market reach and growth potential. It is a key management priority.
Supportive ifThe merger closes on August 1, 2026, as planned without delays.
Worry ifThe merger will not close on the planned date. This is due to regulatory or shareholder problems.