Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.54+2.71%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ESRT
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $4.54 ESRT trades at 5.9× p/ffo, below its 13× p/ffo peer median. Our $7.48 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits well above the analyst range and the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $5.00–$6.00. Note: our $7.48 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($5.00–$6.00). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $5.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $9.18 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $2.27 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $6.89 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$5.00 – $6.00 (median $5.50) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-09-01
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $6.01 |
| 15.6 |
| 0.39 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FFO | 12M | $10.10 | 13.2 | 0.77 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $11.17 | 3.8 | 2.92 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $5.61 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $12.68 | 40.0 | 0.32 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $4.60 | 13.2 | 0.35 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $7.13 | 15.6 | 0.46 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FFO | 3Y | $7.76 | 13.2 | 0.59 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $12.16 | 3.8 | 3.17 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $7.98 | 15.6 | 0.51 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FFO | 5Y | $6.52 | 13.2 | 0.49 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $12.87 | 3.8 | 3.36 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |