Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.54+2.71%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ESRT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -39.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 3.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 43.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ESRT — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-29
of this Current Report, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. Such information shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, unless it is specifically inc…
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the real estate sector picks up, it could support ESRT's performance.
Watch forSector revenue growth speeds up to 6% or more.
Also watch forSector revenue growth stays below 4%.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company declares a dividend of $0.035 per share in the next quarter.
Worry ifThe company reduces the dividend below $0.035 per share in the next quarter.
Why it matters: More cash from operations means the company is working better. It also shows it is financially healthy.
Supportive ifCash from operating activities exceeds $68.91M in Q2.
Worry ifCash from operating activities falls below $26.71M in Q2.
Why it matters: Higher NOI means tourism is recovering and the Observation Deck is doing better.
Supportive ifObservation Deck NOI exceeds $12 million in Q3.
Worry ifObservation Deck NOI remains below $12 million in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$151 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $335 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,427 loss on $10,000 · 44.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growth in Same-Store Property Cash NOI shows the health of the portfolio. It impacts future earnings.
Supportive ifSame-Store Property Cash NOI growth above 2% year over year in Q2.
Worry ifSame-Store Property Cash NOI growth below -1.5% year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: Tourism levels affect revenue from the Observation Deck. This is important for the company.
Watch forObservation Deck NOI goes above $12.4 million. This shows more tourists are visiting.
Also watch forObservation Deck NOI falls below $10 million. This shows ongoing problems with tourism.
Why it matters: If net income improves, it shows better financial health. This could help investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 net income increases from $2.99M in Q1 to above $10M.
Worry ifQ2 net income is below $2.99M. This shows ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: An increase in the dividend shows trust in cash flow and financial health.
Supportive ifDividend per share increases above $0.035.
Worry ifDividend remains at $0.035 or is cut.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a positive shift in the real estate sector.
Supportive if3-year revenue growth increases above 5% and shows signs of acceleration.
Worry if3-year revenue growth stays below 5% or continues to decelerate.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good financial health. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company pays a dividend of $0.035 per share in Q2 2026.
Worry ifThe company cuts the dividend below $0.035 per share in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A drop below this level could signal deeper issues in leasing and demand.
Worry ifOccupancy rate falls below 90% by year-end.
Less concerning ifOccupancy rate remains at or above 90% by year-end.
Why it matters: Better occupancy means more demand for office space. This can lead to more money coming in.
Supportive ifOccupancy rates will be over 90% in the next quarterly report.
Worry ifOccupancy rates will be under 89% in the next quarterly report.
Why it matters: A decline worse than -1.5% would signal deeper issues in occupancy and rental income.
Worry ifSame-Store Property Cash NOI declines more than -1.5% year over year.
Less concerning ifSame-Store Property Cash NOI changes by less than -1.5%.
Why it matters: More leasing activity shows strong demand. This could lead to better future revenue.
Supportive ifLeasing activity exceeds 400,000 square feet in a quarter.
Worry ifLeasing activity falls below 300,000 square feet in a quarter.
Why it matters: An update may show changes in occupancy and how well the business is doing. Investors watch this closely.
Supportive ifCore FFO guidance for 2026 is raised above $0.79 per share.
Worry ifCore FFO guidance remains at or below $0.75 per share.