Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-05
$5.30+0.57%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ESRT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -24.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -4.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ESRT — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-29
of this Current Report, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. Such information shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, unless it is specifically inc…
Why it matters: Office spreads were positive for 20 straight quarters and reached 17.8% in Q2. Positive spreads show new leases bring in more rent than old rents.
Supportive ifThe next quarterly report shows office blended leasing spreads above 0%.
Worry ifThe next quarterly report shows office blended leasing spreads at or below 0%.
Why it matters: Q2 same-store cash NOI fell 3.2% after one-time items were removed. A deeper full-year drop would signal weaker property cash flow.
Worry ifFull-year same-store cash NOI, excluding lease termination fees, falls more than 1.5% year over year.
Less concerning ifFull-year same-store cash NOI stays within the -1.5% to +2.0% guide range.
Why it matters: The new Core FFO range assumes $55 million of Observation Deck NOI, with no visit rebound. Lower NOI could add pressure to earnings.
Worry ifManagement cuts its $55 million 2026 Observation Deck NOI estimate. Or reported NOI puts the full-year total under $55 million.
Less concerning ifManagement keeps the $55 million assumption and reports visits and NOI at a pace that supports it.
Why it matters: The $245 million loan matures in 2032, and its proceeds are set to repay current debt. A delay or changed use could weaken the debt plan.
Watch forThe company draws the $245 million term loan in January 2027 and uses the proceeds to repay existing debt.
Also watch forThe draw does not occur in January 2027, or the company does not use proceeds to repay existing debt.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$124 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $341 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,670 loss on $10,000 · 46.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: ESRT cut its 2026 Core FFO range from $0.85–$0.89. A further miss would point to more pressure on earnings.
Worry ifQ3 results put 2026 Core FFO guidance below $0.75 per share, or management cuts the range again.
Less concerning ifManagement keeps the $0.75–$0.79 range, and Q3 Core FFO stays on pace for that range.