Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.30+0.57%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.05 → 0.05 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ESRT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend per share at $0.035 | Empire State Realty Trust keeps paying a steady dividend of $0.035 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.035 in any quarter | Dividend per share: $0.04 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.035 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 20260.035 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a rate-sensitive real estate recovery thesis, not a steady-growth story. Leasing execution is improving, but recent financial performance trails the industry cohort and the thesis remains on watch.
The valuation evidence is mixed: ESRT is tagged as cheap versus peers, yet the model also shows a 0.54 peer premium and low confidence. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially supportive; the snapshot does not explain that gap further.
Near term, leasing momentum is constructive: activity increased, office leasing spreads widened, and occupancy edged up in the second quarter. Management is also recycling capital toward New York assets, though execution is mixed overall; recent earnings were in line, while recent financial performance remains weak and risk is elevated.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on leasing gains continuing to improve occupancy and rental spreads, and on capital recycling supporting New York assets. Near-term scenarios also hinge on interest rates, the next guidance update, and whether weakness among real estate peers removes sector support.
The multi-year view has some operating support from better leasing, but weak relative performance, elevated risk, and medium confidence leave the thesis unresolved. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $3 million net income. |
| Intact |
| Net income falls below $1 million in any quarter |
Net income: $-39.554M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3 million net income. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 2026-39,554,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Cash from operating activities at least $68 million | Cash from operations rose to $68.91 million in early 2026. | Broken | Cash from operating activities falls below $50 million in any quarter | Cash from operations: $19.542M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $68 million. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 202619,542,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth about 5% per year | Revenue is expected to grow about 5% next year. | Broken | Revenue growth falls below 3% YoY in FY26 | Revenue growth: 2.95% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 4.9% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20262.953725 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
Unavailable → $0.05 · observed estimates
$0.82B → $0.75B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Unavailable | $820,550,000 | — / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | Unavailable | $820,550,000 | — / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | Unavailable | $820,550,000 | — / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | Unavailable | $820,550,000 | — / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | Unavailable | $820,550,000 | — / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.05 | $821,895,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | Unavailable | $790,600,000 | — / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | Unavailable | $793,191,250 | — / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.05 | $818,191,250 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | Unavailable | $793,191,250 | — / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Unavailable | $793,191,250 | — / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.05 | $818,191,250 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Unavailable | $793,191,250 | — / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.05 | $818,191,250 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.05 | $818,191,250 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | Unavailable | $788,955,000 | — / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | Unavailable | $788,955,000 | — / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | Unavailable | $788,955,000 | — / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | Unavailable | $788,955,000 | — / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | Unavailable | $788,955,000 | — / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | Unavailable | $788,955,000 | — / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.05 | $818,191,250 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.05 | $818,191,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.05 | $818,191,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.05 | $818,191,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.05 | $818,191,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.05 | $818,191,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.05 | $822,288,333 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.05 | $822,288,333 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.05 | $822,288,333 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.05 | $822,288,333 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.05 | $822,288,333 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.05 | $822,288,333 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.05 | $822,288,333 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.05 | $822,288,333 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.05 | $822,288,333 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.05 | $822,288,333 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.05 | $822,288,333 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.05 | $822,288,333 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.05 | $822,288,333 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.05 | $822,288,333 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.05 | $822,288,333 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.05 | $822,288,333 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.05 | $822,288,333 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.05 | $822,288,333 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.05 | $765,832,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.05 | $765,832,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.05 | $765,832,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.05 | $765,832,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.05 | $765,832,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.05 | $765,832,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.05 | $765,832,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.05 | $765,832,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.05 | $765,832,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.05 | $765,832,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.05 | $765,832,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.05 | $765,832,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.05 | $765,832,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.05 | $756,148,333 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.05 | $756,148,333 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.05 | $787,130,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.05 | $787,130,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.05 | $787,130,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.05 | $787,130,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.05 | $787,130,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.05 | $787,130,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.05 | $787,130,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.05 | $787,130,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.05 | $787,130,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.05 | $787,130,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.05 | $787,130,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.05 | $787,130,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.05 | $787,130,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.05 | $787,130,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.05 | $787,130,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.05 | $787,130,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.05 | $787,130,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.05 | $787,130,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.05 | $787,130,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.05 | $787,130,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.05 | $787,130,333 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.05 | $787,130,333 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.05 | $787,130,333 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.05 | $787,130,333 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.05 | $787,130,333 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.05 | $787,130,333 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.05 | $786,817,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.05 | $786,817,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.05 | $786,817,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.05 | $755,868,333 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.05 | $755,201,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.05 | $755,201,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.05 | $755,201,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.05 | $755,201,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.05 | $755,201,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.05 | $755,201,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.05 | $755,201,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.05 | $755,201,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.05 | $755,201,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.05 | $755,201,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.05 | $755,201,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.05 | $755,201,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.05 | $755,201,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.05 | $746,947,500 | 1 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.