Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
ENERGY TRANSFER LP (ET)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-11-04
$20.16-0.88%
Close 2026-11-03 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.69 → 1.73 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ET yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA of $18.2-$18.6 billion in 2026 | Energy Transfer raised its 2026 EBITDA guidance to $18.2-$18.6 billion. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $18.2 billion in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Partnership now expects its Adjusted EBITDA for the full year of 2026 to range between $19.7 billion and $19.9 billion, compared to the previous range of between $18.8 billion and $19.1 billion.” “Strategic Highlights • In October 2026, Energy Transfer announced the acquisition of Vaquero Midstream LLC in a bolt-on transaction for approximately $2.6 billion, including cash and equity consideration.” Revenue was $34.334 billion in 2026-Q2. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ET is an infrastructure expansion and earnings-growth story with a sector tailwind, rather than a turnaround. Its multi-year view is intact: recent financial performance is strong, and management is on track with its stated priorities.
The evidence tags expectations as justified, with low fragility, and shows a modest negative expectations gap. In plain terms, the setup does not show the full combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulent conditions, though the sector regime is turbulent.
Near term, earnings performance has been strong, and management raised 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance while increasing growth-capital plans. Projects are advancing, but earnings surprises have been trending down in a high-miss-rate industry, and a guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful setback.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on ET continuing to deliver on its higher guidance and infrastructure projects. Sector conditions also matter: continued strength from ENB, WMB, and KMI would support the tailwind, while missed results or lower guidance could weaken it. The September legal and regulatory listing notice is a negative event, but the evidence does not explain its implications.
For a 1-3 year view, ET’s operating progress supports an intact thesis, but execution, sector momentum, and the unresolved listing notice remain important watch points. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth capital investment of $5.5-$5.9 billion in 2026 | It plans to invest $5.5-$5.9 billion in growth capital this year. | Intact | Growth capital investment falls below $5.5 billion in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $1.564B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.5 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20261,564,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Partnership expects to invest $5.4 billion to $5.6 billion in growth capital for 2026 and approximately $7 billion for 2027.” “• Energy Transfer has announced several new strategic growth projects to meet growing energy demand throughout the U.S., which will further enhance its asset base: ◦ On September 1, 2026, Phase I of the Hugh Brinson Pipeline was placed into full service, ahead of schedule.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue near $17.5 billion in 2026 | Revenue is expected near $17.5 billion in 2026. | Improving | Revenue falls below $17.3 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $34.334B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$17.5 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202634,334,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Partnership now expects its Adjusted EBITDA for the full year of 2026 to range between $19.7 billion and $19.9 billion, compared to the previous range of between $18.8 billion and $19.1 billion.” “Strategic Highlights • In October 2026, Energy Transfer announced the acquisition of Vaquero Midstream LLC in a bolt-on transaction for approximately $2.6 billion, including cash and equity consideration.” Revenue was $34.334 billion in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.57 → $1.73 · observed estimates
$111.81B → $125.65B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.57 | $111,814,067,370 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.57 | $111,814,067,370 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.57 | $111,814,067,370 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.57 | $112,012,509,530 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.57 | $112,012,509,530 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.58 | $110,188,029,932 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.57 | $112,012,509,530 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.57 | $112,012,509,530 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.58 | $110,188,029,932 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.57 | $112,012,509,530 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.57 | $112,012,509,530 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.58 | $110,188,029,932 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.57 | $112,012,509,530 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.58 | $110,188,029,932 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.62 | $111,611,202,765 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.60 | $115,553,986,530 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.60 | $115,553,986,530 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.62 | $111,611,202,765 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.60 | $115,553,986,530 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.62 | $111,611,202,765 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.64 | $117,901,403,200 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.62 | $111,611,202,765 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.62 | $111,611,202,765 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.62 | $111,611,202,765 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.62 | $111,611,202,765 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.62 | $111,611,202,765 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.62 | $111,611,202,765 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.70 | $120,309,361,343 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.70 | $120,309,361,343 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.71 | $120,309,361,343 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.71 | $120,309,361,343 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.71 | $120,309,361,343 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.71 | $120,309,361,343 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.71 | $120,309,361,343 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.71 | $120,309,361,343 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.71 | $120,309,361,343 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.71 | $120,309,361,343 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.71 | $120,309,361,343 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.71 | $121,009,448,898 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.71 | $121,009,448,898 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.71 | $121,009,448,898 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.70 | $121,019,115,565 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.70 | $121,019,115,565 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.70 | $121,019,115,565 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.70 | $121,019,115,565 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.70 | $121,019,115,565 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.70 | $121,019,115,565 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.70 | $121,019,115,565 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.70 | $121,019,115,565 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.71 | $121,019,115,565 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.71 | $121,019,115,565 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.71 | $121,019,115,565 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.71 | $121,019,115,565 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.71 | $121,019,115,565 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.71 | $121,019,115,565 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.71 | $121,019,115,565 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.71 | $121,019,115,565 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.71 | $121,019,115,565 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.69 | $120,401,489,707 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.69 | $120,401,489,707 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.69 | $120,401,489,707 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.69 | $120,995,223,763 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.69 | $121,060,621,782 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.69 | $121,060,621,782 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.69 | $121,060,621,782 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.69 | $121,060,621,782 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.69 | $121,060,621,782 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.69 | $121,060,621,782 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.69 | $121,060,621,782 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.69 | $121,060,621,782 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.69 | $121,060,621,782 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.69 | $121,060,621,782 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.69 | $121,060,621,782 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.69 | $121,060,621,782 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.69 | $121,060,621,782 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.69 | $121,060,621,782 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.69 | $121,060,621,782 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.69 | $121,060,621,782 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.69 | $121,060,621,782 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.69 | $121,060,621,782 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.69 | $121,060,621,782 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.69 | $121,060,621,782 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.69 | $121,060,621,782 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.71 | $121,619,765,473 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.71 | $121,640,443,953 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.71 | $121,640,443,953 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.71 | $121,982,828,568 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.71 | $121,982,828,568 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.71 | $121,982,828,568 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.71 | $121,982,828,568 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.71 | $121,982,828,568 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.71 | $121,982,828,568 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.71 | $121,982,828,568 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.71 | $121,982,828,568 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.71 | $121,982,828,568 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.71 | $121,982,828,568 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.71 | $121,982,828,568 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.71 | $121,982,828,568 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.71 | $121,982,828,568 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.71 | $121,982,828,568 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.71 | $121,982,828,568 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.71 | $121,982,828,568 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.72 | $125,574,397,616 | 14 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.73 | $125,647,939,866 | 14 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.