ENERGY TRANSFER LP (ET)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-09-04
$21.50+0.28%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ET
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ET — debt issuance
Dated 2026-07-21
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On July 20, 2026, Energy Transfer LP (the “Partnership”) completed its previously reported underwritten public offering (the “Offering”) of $650,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its Series 2026A Junior Subordinated Notes due 2057 (the “Series 2026A Notes”) and $1,100,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its Series 2026B Junior Subordinated Notes due 2057 (the “Series 2026B Notes” and, together with the Series 2026A Notes, the “Notes”). The Not…
Why it matters: An increase in guidance would show strong growth momentum and management confidence.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance is now over $19.1 billion for 2026.
Worry ifGuidance remains at or below $18.8 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: The new CEO's plans will shape the company's future. This could impact investor confidence and stock performance.
Watch forThe new CEO outlines a clear growth strategy in a press release or conference call.
Also watch forThe new CEO provides vague or no guidance on future strategy.
Why it matters: This change will affect the capital structure. It will impact the partnership's financial flexibility.
Watch forNotice of redemption for the Series H Preferred Units is issued as planned.
Also watch forNo notice of redemption is issued by the expected date.
Why it matters: This will increase natural gas transport and help revenue grow.
Supportive ifThe Hugh Brinson Pipeline begins flowing at full capacity of 1.5 Bcf/d.
Worry ifThe pipeline fails to start operations by the September 1 deadline.
Why it matters: New projects show ongoing investment. They help expand capacity to meet demand.
Supportive ifThey announced more natural gas pipeline projects. This will help meet growing power demand.
Worry ifNo new projects are announced by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: A successful transition is key for steady leadership. It also provides clear direction.
Watch forThe CEO transition is completed by the end of 2026.
Also watch forThe transition is delayed or unresolved by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: New projects show growth in natural gas infrastructure and demand.
Supportive ifEnergy Transfer will announce more natural gas pipeline projects. These will happen later this year.
Worry ifNo new pipeline projects are announced by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Finishing this will increase processing capacity. It will also help revenue in the Midland Basin.
Supportive ifThe Mustang Draw I processing plant is fully operational at 275 MMcf/d.
Worry ifThe processing plant does not achieve full operational status by June 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting the growth capital target shows a plan to expand the business.
Supportive ifGrowth capital spending for 2026 reaches or exceeds $5.5 billion.
Worry ifGrowth capital spending falls below $5.5 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$74 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $148 loss on $10,000 · 1.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $804 loss on $10,000 · 8.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.