Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
EverQuote, Inc. (EVER)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$30.32-0.92%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.28 → 2.16 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for EVER yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain positive net income trajectory with growth above $18M | Net income rose from $8M to $19M in a year, showing profit gains. | Intact | net income falls below $15M in next quarters | Net income: $18.152M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: net income >= $18.67M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 202618,152,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-focused business with strong recent financial performance, rather than a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, but confidence has eased from high to medium and the risk level is elevated.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure says EVER is cheap versus peers, while another shows a 49% premium to peers. The expectations gap is slightly negative, and the priced-in assessment is justified with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to a clear valuation bargain or excessive expectations.
Near-term revenue growth has been strong: Q2 2026 revenue rose 25% year over year, and management has delivered on its stated growth focus. AI investment has recurring management attention, but the supplied evidence does not show specific product results; share repurchases are established, with execution of the newly authorized program not yet evidenced. Near-term risk includes erratic earnings surprises and recent peer misses, while the broader sector backdrop is a headwind.
A guidance cut on the next call would weaken the thesis, especially given the tendency for estimates to be reduced after such cuts. Fed rate cuts could help rate-sensitive Communication Services stocks, while continued strong results and guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum. The multi-year view also depends on whether revenue growth continues and AI investment produces clearer results.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, EVER’s thesis rests on sustained revenue growth and stronger evidence that AI investment can contribute, against elevated risk and a sector headwind. The thesis is intact, but confidence is medium. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in EverQuote, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=21% YoY growth to ~$190M revenue. |
| Intact |
| YoY revenue growth falls below ~14% in Q2 2026 |
Revenue growth: 25.37% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=21% YoY growth to ~$190M revenue. Target and observation currencies differ. Nov 3, 202625.374842 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase variable marketing dollars by 23% YoY in Q2 2026 | The company keeps increasing marketing spend to drive growth. | Intact | marketing spend growth falls below 15% YoY in Q2 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.43 → $2.16 · observed estimates
$0.88B → $0.91B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.43 | $880,433,588 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.08 | $876,306,000 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.43 | $880,433,588 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.08 | $876,306,000 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.43 | $880,433,588 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.08 | $876,306,000 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.43 | $880,433,588 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.43 | $880,433,588 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.43 | $880,433,588 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.08 | $876,306,000 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.43 | $880,433,588 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.08 | $876,306,000 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.38 | $880,274,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.02 | $877,588,290 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.26 | $882,335,500 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.81 | $875,725,430 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.81 | $875,725,430 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.81 | $875,725,430 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.26 | $882,335,500 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.81 | $875,725,430 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.26 | $882,335,500 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.26 | $882,335,500 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.26 | $882,335,500 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.26 | $882,335,500 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.26 | $882,335,500 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.26 | $882,335,500 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.26 | $882,335,500 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.18 | $876,671,657 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.18 | $876,671,657 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.18 | $876,671,657 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.18 | $876,671,657 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.18 | $876,671,657 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.28 | $882,834,201 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.25 | $888,349,876 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.16 | $908,726,188 | 4 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.