Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Evolent Health, Inc. (EVH)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.54-5.42%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.36 → 0.36 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for EVH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain adjusted EBITDA of $110M to $140M in 2026 | Adjusted EBITDA should be $110M to $140M. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $110 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
EVH is a growth-focused business with elevated risk, not a proven profitable compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, but confidence is medium and profitability progress still needs proof.
The valuation evidence points to EVH being cheap versus peers, with a low-confidence model and a negative expectations gap. Pricing is tagged as justified, and no fragility concerns were identified.
Near term, revenue rose from $496.2 million in the first quarter of 2026 to $652.5 million in the second, and EVH raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $2.6 billion to $2.7 billion. Adjusted EBITDA, a measure of operating earnings before certain costs, also increased, but its guidance remains on watch; recent results included an earnings miss in May and an in-line report in August. Continued guidance delivery matters, especially because another cut after the recent increase would hurt management credibility.
The multi-year view depends on EVH delivering its 2026 revenue plan while maintaining adjusted EBITDA guidance and making progress toward profitability. Near term, weakening job growth could weigh on cyclical healthcare names, while continued strength from sector peers could support the broader backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, EVH’s growth case has support from recent revenue gains and a more favorable sector signal, but persistent losses and guidance execution keep risk elevated. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Evolent Health, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $25 million to $30 million. |
| Intact |
| Capitalized software spend falls below $25 million in FY26 |
Capital expenditures: $13.255M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $25 million to $30 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202613,255,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Additional Outlook Information The Company expects to deploy $25 million to $30 million in cash for capitalized software development during 2026.” “Additional Outlook Information The Company expects to deploy approximately $25 million to $30 million in cash for capitalized software development during 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Achieve 2026 revenue of $2.4B to $2.6B | A primary condition in Evolent Health, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.4 billion. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $2.4 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $652.52M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.4 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026652,520,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Full Year 2026 Guidance Incorporating its year-to-date performance, the Company is raising its 2026 revenue guidance range to $2.6 to $2.7 billion.” “We currently expect this business to launch by December 2026, subject to certain regulatory approvals, and generate approximately $300 million in annualized revenue.” Revenue was $652.520 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.37 → $0.36 · observed estimates
$2.95B → $3.29B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.37 | $2,946,897,798 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.37 | $2,934,981,460 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.37 | $2,934,981,460 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.37 | $2,934,981,460 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.35 | $2,943,220,173 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.35 | $2,943,220,173 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.36 | $2,932,245,790 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.34 | $2,940,289,102 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.34 | $2,940,289,102 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.36 | $2,932,245,790 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.34 | $2,940,289,102 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.36 | $2,932,245,790 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.34 | $2,940,289,102 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.36 | $2,932,245,790 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.34 | $2,940,289,102 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.35 | $3,311,476,600 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.34 | $2,940,289,102 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.35 | $3,311,476,600 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.34 | $2,940,289,102 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.38 | $3,194,364,530 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.34 | $2,940,289,102 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.34 | $2,940,289,102 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.34 | $2,940,289,102 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.34 | $2,940,289,102 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.34 | $2,940,289,102 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.34 | $2,940,289,102 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.34 | $2,940,289,102 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.35 | $3,297,914,221 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.36 | $3,295,801,845 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.36 | $3,295,801,845 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.36 | $3,295,801,845 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.36 | $3,295,801,845 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.36 | $3,295,801,845 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.36 | $3,295,801,845 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.36 | $3,295,801,845 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.36 | $3,295,801,845 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.36 | $3,295,803,988 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.36 | $3,295,803,988 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.36 | $3,295,803,988 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.36 | $3,295,803,988 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.36 | $3,295,803,988 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.36 | $3,295,803,988 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.36 | $3,295,803,988 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.36 | $3,295,803,988 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.36 | $3,295,803,988 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.36 | $3,295,803,988 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.36 | $3,295,803,988 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.36 | $3,295,803,988 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.36 | $3,295,803,988 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.36 | $3,295,806,631 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.36 | $3,295,803,988 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.36 | $3,295,803,988 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.36 | $3,295,803,988 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.36 | $3,295,803,988 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.36 | $3,295,803,988 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.36 | $3,295,803,988 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.36 | $3,295,803,988 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.36 | $3,294,089,702 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.36 | $3,294,089,702 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.36 | $3,294,089,702 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.36 | $3,294,089,702 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.36 | $3,294,089,702 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.36 | $3,294,089,702 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.36 | $3,294,089,702 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.36 | $3,294,089,702 | 7 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.