Evolent Health, Inc. (EVH)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.32+1.41%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EVH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -71.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 40.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 112.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
EVH — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-06
shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or otherwise subject the Company or any other person to liability under that Section, to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing made by the Company under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows Evolent is making money despite challenges.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA lands at or above $135 million.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA is less than $120 million.
Why it matters: This launch could bring in a lot of money. It supports Evolent's growth plan in specialty care.
Supportive ifThe oncology partnership starts as planned. It will cover 1.5 million lives.
Worry ifThe oncology partnership launch is delayed or does not go live by December 2026.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth signals that Evolent is on track to meet its 2026 guidance.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 25% compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is below 20% year over year.
Why it matters: This partnership could generate $300 million in annual revenue, boosting growth.
Supportive ifThe partnership will begin in December 2026. This will happen after getting approvals.
Worry ifThe partnership launch is delayed beyond December 2026 or fails to gain approval.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$282 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $745 loss on $10,000 · 7.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,828 loss on $10,000 · 78.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A lower medical expense ratio shows better cost control. It means the company is more efficient.
Supportive ifMedical expense ratio was below 90% in the next quarters.
Worry ifMedical expense ratio remains at or above 93.3%.
Why it matters: New agreements are crucial for sustaining growth and expanding market reach.
Supportive ifAt least two new revenue agreements are signed in Q3.
Worry ifNo new revenue agreements are announced in Q3.
Why it matters: Faster sector growth could help Evolent perform better.
Supportive ifHealth Care sector revenue growth shows signs of re-accelerating back toward highs.
Worry ifSector growth keeps slowing down, affecting Evolent's outlook.
Why it matters: Spending at this level shows commitment to technology and growth. It can enhance future revenue potential.
Supportive ifCapitalized software spending was $25M or more. This shows strong investment in technology.
Worry ifCapitalized software spending was below $25M. This suggests less investment in growth.
Why it matters: This growth rate shows how well Evolent is doing in the market and its demand.
Supportive if2027 revenue growth exceeds 25% compared to 2026.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below 25% compared to 2026.
Why it matters: This expansion could add less than $5 million in annual revenue, indicating growth.
Supportive ifThe expansion is implemented in Q3 or Q4 of 2026.
Worry ifThe expansion is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: The earnings miss could affect investor confidence and future growth outlook.
Worry ifQ2 results show a recovery from the earnings miss with improved metrics.
Less concerning ifQ2 results reflect continued weakness after the earnings miss.
Why it matters: New agreements show growth and demand for Evolent's services. This affects future revenue.
Supportive ifAt least one new revenue deal is signed for oncology or specialty care.
Worry ifNo new revenue deals have been announced in oncology or specialty care.
Why it matters: New agreements show that more people want Evolent's services. This affects future income.
Supportive ifAt least two new revenue agreements signed for the Performance Suite by the end of Q4 2026.
Worry ifNo new revenue agreements signed for the Performance Suite by the end of Q4 2026.