Evolent Health, Inc. (EVH)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.54-5.42%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EVH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -74.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 47.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 122.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
EVH — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-06
shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or otherwise subject the Company or any other person to liability under that Section, to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing made by the Company under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: Evolent plans to spend cash on software development while seeking better cash flow. Spending above the range could add pressure to cash.
Worry ifEvolent reports more than $30 million in cash spending on software development in 2026.
Less concerning ifEvolent keeps spending at or below $30 million and within its stated $25 million to $30 million range.
Why it matters: Management tied its 2027 growth outlook to signed contracts and planned launches. Launch delays or weaker demand could put that outlook at risk.
Supportive ifManagement repeats its outlook for 2027 revenue growth above 25%. It says launches are on schedule.
Worry ifManagement cuts the above-25% 2027 growth outlook or reports major launch delays.
Why it matters: Evolent said better cash flow and debt reduction could help address its capital structure. A named plan or completed debt payment would show progress.
Supportive ifEvolent announces a debt reduction plan or makes a debt payment. It also reports better cash flow conversion.
Worry ifCash flow conversion does not improve, or Evolent reports no debt reduction steps in its next update.
Why it matters: Evolent tightened its 2026 adjusted EBITDA range to $120 million to $135 million. Q2 EBITDA was below Q1, so the next report tests the plan.
Worry ifThe November 5 report keeps adjusted EBITDA guidance at $120 million to $135 million. It shows progress toward that range.
Less concerning ifEvolent cuts the $120 million floor or reports results that make reaching it less likely.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$246 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $721 loss on $10,000 · 7.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,656 loss on $10,000 · 66.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.