Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV)
NASDAQIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$4.53-5.82%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for EVLV yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Positive adjusted EBITDA with high single-digit margins in 2026 | The company targets positive adjusted EBITDA with high single-digit margins. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA margin remains negative through FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company expects Adjusted EBITDA 2 in 2026 to be between $15 to $16 million with Adjusted EBITDA 2 margins in the high single digits.” “Adjusted EBITDA 2 for the second quarter of 2026 was $4.4 million compared to $2.1 million in the second quarter of 2025.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business with elevated risk, not yet a proven profitable compounder. The multi-year thesis is in a watch state: management is making progress on its 2026 goals, but recent performance is weak and company quality has fallen.
EVLV is expensive versus peers, with an expectations gap tied to potential future opportunities, or optionality. The evidence labels the valuation premium as unjustified, though fragility is rated low because expensive valuation is the main concern rather than a combination of expensive, weak, and turbulent conditions.
Near term, revenue growth and Adjusted EBITDA progress are supported by management’s raised 2026 guidance, and both goals are listed as on track. However, recent financial performance trails the industry cohort, the company has missed across recent quarters, and litigation filings add uncertainty. The subscription deployment mix is a weaker spot, with the 2026 expectation revised from 45% pure subscription to 40%.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on EVLV sustaining its raised guidance and continuing progress toward positive full-year Adjusted EBITDA. A guidance reversal would damage management credibility, while results and guidance from Industrials peers such as ALLE, MSA, and BCO could strengthen or weaken the sector backdrop.
For the 1-to-3-year view, EVLV has measurable growth and profitability goals, but execution, recent weakness, and an expensive valuation leave the thesis unproven. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Revenue growth of 20% to 23% in 2026 | A primary condition in Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 20% to 23% YoY growth. | Improving | YoY revenue growth falls below 19% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 34.44% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 20% to 23% YoY growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 11, 202634.442601 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
45% of new unit deployments via subscription in 2026 | A supporting condition in Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 45% subscription share of new deployments. | Intact | Subscription share of new deployments falls below 35% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.07 → $-0.04 · observed estimates
$0.21B → $0.22B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.07 | $209,229,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.07 | $209,229,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.07 | $209,229,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.07 | $209,229,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.07 | $209,229,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.03 | $209,233,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.03 | $209,233,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.07 | $209,229,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.07 | $209,229,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.03 | $209,233,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.07 | $209,229,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.03 | $209,233,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.07 | $209,229,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.03 | $209,233,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.07 | $209,229,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.03 | $209,233,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.07 | $209,229,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.03 | $209,233,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.07 | $209,229,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.03 | $209,233,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.07 | $209,229,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.07 | $209,229,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.07 | $209,229,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.07 | $209,229,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.07 | $209,229,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.07 | $209,229,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.07 | $209,229,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.07 | $218,790,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.07 | $218,790,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.07 | $218,790,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.07 | $218,790,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.07 | $218,790,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.07 | $218,790,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.07 | $218,790,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.07 | $218,790,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.07 | $218,790,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.07 | $218,790,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.07 | $218,790,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.07 | $218,790,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.07 | $218,790,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.07 | $218,790,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.07 | $218,790,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.07 | $218,790,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.07 | $218,790,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.07 | $218,790,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.07 | $218,790,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.07 | $218,790,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.07 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.07 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.07 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.07 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.07 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.07 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.07 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.07 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.07 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.07 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.07 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.07 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.07 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.07 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.07 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.07 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.07 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.07 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.07 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.07 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.07 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.07 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.07 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.07 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.07 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.07 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.07 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.07 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.04 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.04 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.04 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.04 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.04 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.04 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.04 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.04 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.04 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.04 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.04 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.04 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.04 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.04 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.04 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.04 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.04 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.04 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.04 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.04 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.04 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.04 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.04 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.04 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.04 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.04 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.04 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.04 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.04 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.04 | $218,904,800 | 2 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.