Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV)
NASDAQIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$5.00+0.60%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EVLV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 223.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 20.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 202.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
EVLV — litigation filed
Dated 2026-08-10
Other Events. On August 6, 2026, the United States District Court for the District of Massachusetts (the “Court”) preliminarily approved the settlement (“Settlement”) of stockholder derivative claims actually or threatened to be brought on behalf of Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (the “Company” or “Evolv”) in accordance with that certain Stipulation and Agreement of Settlement dated August 5, 2026. The Settlement fully and finally resolves the following stockholder derivative matters with…
Why it matters: Hitting this goal shows strong use of the subscription model. This is key for stable revenue.
Supportive ifNew unit deployments via subscription model reach 45% by year-end 2026.
Worry ifNew unit deployments through the subscription model stay below 40% by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: Better margins mean lower costs and higher efficiency.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin goes above 10% in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin stays below 10% in Q3.
Why it matters: If the sector's revenue growth speeds up, it could help Evolv's performance. This is key for its recovery.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth rises above 5% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth stays below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Fewer new customers may mean less interest or more competition.
Worry ifNew customer additions in Q3 fall below 50.
Less concerning ifNew customer additions in Q3 meet or exceed 50.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$175 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $507 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,406 loss on $10,000 · 44.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Reaching this goal shows a successful move to a subscription model.
Supportive ifThe company reports that 45% of new unit deployments are through subscription.
Worry ifLess than 45% of new unit deployments are subscription-based.
Why it matters: A slowdown in revenue growth may mean less demand or problems with execution.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth prints below 20% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth meets or exceeds 20% year-over-year.
Why it matters: A lower EBITDA may show problems in making money.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is less than $4 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA at or above $4 million.
Why it matters: More customer growth is important for keeping revenue and market presence.
Supportive ifCompany adds more than 70 new customers in Q3.
Worry ifCompany adds fewer than 70 new customers in Q3.
Why it matters: The lawsuit's outcome could affect the company's work and finances. Bad news could lower investor trust.
Worry ifA positive outcome or settlement of the lawsuit is announced.
Less concerning ifBad news or rulings in the lawsuit are reported.
Why it matters: Approval may help Evolv's governance and reduce legal risks.
Supportive ifThe court approves the settlement for the lawsuit.
Worry ifThe court denies the settlement for the lawsuit.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company can improve its financial losses. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Watch forEarnings report shows a smaller loss than the previous quarter or a profit.
Also watch forEarnings report shows a larger loss than the previous quarter.