Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV)
NASDAQIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$4.53-5.82%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EVLV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 229.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 23.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 205.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 7 industry peers
EVLV — litigation filed
Dated 2026-08-10
Other Events. On August 6, 2026, the United States District Court for the District of Massachusetts (the “Court”) preliminarily approved the settlement (“Settlement”) of stockholder derivative claims actually or threatened to be brought on behalf of Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (the “Company” or “Evolv”) in accordance with that certain Stipulation and Agreement of Settlement dated August 5, 2026. The Settlement fully and finally resolves the following stockholder derivative matters with…
Why it matters: Evolv now expects 40% of new units under pure subscriptions, down from its earlier 45% goal. The next report can show if that mix improves.
Watch forEvolv reports that pure subscriptions make up more than 40% of 2026 new unit deployments.
Also watch forEvolv reports that pure subscriptions make up less than 40% of 2026 new unit deployments.
Why it matters: Management raised its 2026 revenue range to $180 million to $185 million. Meeting the low end would back its growth plan.
Supportive ifAt the next earnings update, Evolv keeps its $180 million to $185 million range and reports results on pace to reach at least $180 million.
Worry ifEvolv cuts its 2026 revenue range below $180 million or reports results that put the low end out of reach.
Why it matters: ARR tracks recurring contract revenue. Reaching the raised range would support continued customer growth.
Supportive ifEvolv reports December 31, 2026 ARR of at least $148 million, within its $148 million to $150 million range.
Worry ifEvolv lowers its ARR range below $148 million or reports year-end ARR below $148 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$170 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $524 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,497 loss on $10,000 · 45.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.