Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Expensify, Inc. (EXFY)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.23-6.30%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.10 → 0.10 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for EXFY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
positive free cash flow of at least $6 million in FY 2026 | Expensify aims to achieve positive free cash flow between $6 million and $9 million in 2026. | Intact | free cash flow falls below $6 million in FY26 | Free cash flow: $7.021M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20267,021,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making software business with a turnaround-like element, rather than a proven durable compounder. Its multi-year view is on watch: new-customer growth and better cash-flow guidance are positives, but recent results and momentum are weak.
The valuation evidence points to EXFY being cheap versus peers, but confidence in that comparison is low. The expectations gap is negative, while the priced-in assessment is labeled justified and shows low fragility; the evidence does not establish that weak performance is fully reflected in expectations.
Near term, the next results carry meaningful execution risk: EXFY missed its most recent quarter, and company momentum fell sharply. In 2026-Q2, revenue from new customers for New Expensify grew more than 250% year over year to over $10 million in annual recurring revenue, but total revenue declined 5% to $33.9 million. Management raised its 2026 free-cash-flow guidance, though delivery remains mixed.
A guidance cut at the next call would add to concerns, while continued growth in New Expensify and delivery on the higher cash-flow outlook would support the business case. Easier interest rates and stabilization among large technology companies could improve the sector backdrop, but these are external factors rather than proof of EXFY’s own execution.
Over the next one to three years, the central question is whether new-customer growth and improving cash flow can offset declining total revenue and weak recent performance. The evidence supports a cautious, watch-level long-term thesis with high risk and low valuation-model confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operating income improved from -$3.94 million to -$1.97 million, showing progress. |
| Intact |
| operating income deteriorates or remains below -$2 million over next 4 quarters |
Operating income: $-2.921M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating income improves from -$1.97M in Q1 2026 toward break-even. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 2026-2,921,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
resolve Nasdaq listing deficiency | A supporting condition in Expensify, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Nasdaq listing deficiency resolved by end of 2026. | Improving | Nasdaq delisting occurs or deficiency unresolved beyond 2026 | Deficiency unresolved (Apr 2026 notice); no delisting event April 2026 Nasdaq deficiency notice received. No subsequent news confirms resolution or delisting. Financial metrics show improvement but do not resolve the listing issue. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.07 → $0.10 · observed estimates
$0.13B → $0.14B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.07 | $134,803,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.07 | $134,803,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.07 | $134,803,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.07 | $134,803,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.07 | $134,803,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.07 | $134,803,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.07 | $134,803,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.07 | $134,803,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.07 | $134,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.07 | $134,803,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.07 | $134,803,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.07 | $134,803,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.07 | $134,803,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.07 | $134,803,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.07 | $134,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.07 | $136,884,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.10 | $135,851,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.07 | $134,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.10 | $135,851,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.10 | $136,084,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.07 | $134,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.07 | $134,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.07 | $134,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.07 | $134,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.07 | $134,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.07 | $134,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.07 | $134,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.10 | $136,084,667 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.