Expensify, Inc. (EXFY)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.23-6.30%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EXFY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -58.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 56.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 36 industry peers
EXFY — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
and this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1 and 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposed of Section 18 of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing made by Expensify under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: New Expensify is the main growth plan. More new-customer ARR growth would support that plan, even as total revenue falls.
Supportive ifIn Q3 results, net new customer ARR is above $10 million and grows more than 250% year over year.
Worry ifNet new customer ARR is below $10 million or its year-over-year growth is 250% or less.
Why it matters: Expensify raised its cash goal to $12 million-$14 million. Q3 cash flow will test whether that higher goal is in reach.
Watch forThe Q3 report shows enough year-to-date free cash flow to reach at least $12 million for FY 2026.
Also watch forThe Q3 report lowers FY 2026 free cash flow guidance below $12 million or reports negative free cash flow.
Why it matters: Total revenue fell 5% in Q2 while Classic customers slowly leave. A return to growth would show that new sales can offset that decline.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue is above $33.9 million and grows year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue falls year over year again, below the Q2 level of $33.9 million.
Why it matters: Card interchange grew 12% in Q2. Growth above 10% would show that this revenue stream is still expanding.
Supportive ifQ3 card interchange revenue grows more than 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 card interchange revenue grows 10% or less year over year, or falls from the Q2 level of $5.9 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$274 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $543 loss on $10,000 · 5.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,553 loss on $10,000 · 55.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Paid members fell 2% in Q2. A rise would show that new sign-ups and customer moves can offset losses.
Supportive ifQ3 paid members are above the year-earlier count of 653,000, reversing the Q2 decline.
Worry ifQ3 paid members remain below 653,000 and keep falling year over year.