Expeditors International (EXPD)
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$188.80+0.89%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EXPD
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $189 EXPD trades at 27× p/e, in line with its 24× p/e peer median — but our blended $140 fair value sits well below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range and quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Analysts target $150–$210. Note: our $140 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($150–$210). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $196 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $175.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $51.01 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $58.86 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $49.96 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$150.00 – $210.00 (median $175.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-08-05
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 23% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 6.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $7.09/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $152.32 |
| 15.4 |
| 9.40 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $156.44 | 22.2 | 7.03 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $153.94 | 19.3 | 7.96 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $148.95 | 1.6 | 91.62 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $203.02 | 29.6 | 6.87 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $39.29 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $179.33 | 26.1 | 6.87 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $168.99 | 24.0 | 7.06 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $79.98 | 22.2 | 3.60 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $174.47 | 19.3 | 9.02 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $181.04 | 1.6 | 111.36 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $266.57 | 29.6 | 9.02 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $235.48 | 26.1 | 9.02 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $51.14 | 22.2 | 2.30 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $198.13 | 19.3 | 10.24 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $205.60 | 1.6 | 126.46 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $302.73 | 29.6 | 10.24 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $267.41 | 26.1 | 10.24 | Analyst | high |