Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Expeditors International (EXPD)
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$197.69-3.24%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
8.08 → 8.60 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for EXPD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Effectively manage freight environment and operational risks | A supporting condition in Expeditors International's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain progress score >=70 on managing freight environment. | Intact | Progress score falls below 60 or major operational disruptions occur | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a freight-forwarding business with a durable premium versus peers, rather than a turnaround story. Its multi-year view is intact, and momentum improved recently, but management quality and earnings quality are assessed as neutral.
EXPD carries a 1.3-times premium versus peers, reflecting a durable premium in the valuation. The expectations gap is 0.29, but the evidence does not explain its scale or what specific expectations are embedded, so the market’s assumptions are only partly clear.
Near-term results have been strong: second-quarter revenue rose 26% from the first quarter, with airfreight tonnage up 14% and ocean volumes up 7% sequentially. Management is on track in navigating freight volatility and returning capital, while technology and AI progress is mixed; the broader sector remains a headwind, although the near-term miss risk is rated low.
The multi-year view depends on EXPD continuing to manage an unpredictable freight environment and sustain operational progress. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while the results and guidance of UPS, FDX, and JBHT could signal whether the sector backdrop is improving or weakening.
The 1-to-3-year thesis remains intact on the evidence of stronger recent results, but it faces a sector headwind and depends on continued execution through freight volatility. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 4 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We also believe that while the freight environment remains unpredictable, our continued focus on fee-based services will help balance the performance of our overall product portfolio.”” “We will continue to adjust our ocean operating costs to more properly align with current market conditions.””
Maintain or improve operating income above $295M | Operating income rose from $265.9M to $294.8M in one year. | Intact | Operating income falls below $265M in next 4 quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 6 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “David A. Hackett, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, added: “With headcount sequentially flat versus the prior quarter, coupled with our revenue and margin growth, we meaningfully increased our productivity from the fourth quarter of 2025 as our operating efficiency achieved our 30% historical target.” “In 2026, we will continue to focus on growth diversification, pricing optimization, and further alignment of our cost structure with current market conditions.” Operating income was $445.414 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Sustain revenue growth near 5% annually | A primary condition in Expeditors International's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 3% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 41.9% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=5% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202641.899908 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We also believe that while the freight environment remains unpredictable, our continued focus on fee-based services will help balance the performance of our overall product portfolio.”” “We will continue to adjust our ocean operating costs to more properly align with current market conditions.”” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.04 → $8.60 · observed estimates
$12.23B → $13.96B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.04 | $12,234,514,563 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.12 | $12,255,520,630 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.04 | $12,236,684,918 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.12 | $12,255,520,630 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.04 | $12,236,684,918 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.04 | $12,236,684,918 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.04 | $12,236,684,918 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.12 | $12,255,520,630 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.05 | $12,236,684,918 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.12 | $12,255,520,630 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.12 | $12,255,520,630 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.05 | $12,236,684,918 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.12 | $12,255,520,630 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.12 | $12,255,520,630 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-07 | $7.98 | $13,119,899,641 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $8.07 | $13,088,072,740 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-09 | $8.07 | $13,088,072,740 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-10 | $8.07 | $13,088,072,740 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-11 | $7.98 | $13,119,899,641 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $8.07 | $13,088,072,740 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.98 | $13,119,899,641 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.98 | $13,119,899,641 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.98 | $13,119,899,641 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.98 | $13,119,899,641 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.98 | $13,119,899,641 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.98 | $13,119,899,641 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.98 | $13,119,899,641 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.98 | $13,147,376,712 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.98 | $13,147,376,712 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.98 | $13,147,376,712 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.98 | $13,147,376,712 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.98 | $13,147,376,712 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.98 | $13,147,376,712 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.98 | $13,147,376,712 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.98 | $13,147,376,712 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.98 | $13,147,376,712 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.98 | $13,147,376,712 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.98 | $13,147,376,712 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.98 | $13,147,376,712 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.98 | $13,147,376,712 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.98 | $13,147,376,712 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.98 | $13,147,376,712 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.98 | $13,147,376,712 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.98 | $13,147,376,712 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.98 | $13,147,376,712 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.98 | $13,147,376,712 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.98 | $13,147,376,712 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $8.01 | $13,147,376,712 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $8.01 | $13,147,376,712 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $8.01 | $13,151,817,212 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $8.01 | $13,151,817,212 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $8.01 | $13,151,817,212 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $8.01 | $13,151,817,212 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $8.01 | $13,151,817,212 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $8.01 | $13,151,817,212 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $8.01 | $13,151,817,212 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $8.01 | $13,151,817,212 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $8.01 | $13,151,817,212 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $8.02 | $13,151,817,212 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $8.02 | $13,151,817,212 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $8.02 | $13,151,817,212 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $8.02 | $13,151,817,212 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $8.02 | $13,151,817,212 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $8.02 | $13,151,817,212 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $8.02 | $13,151,817,212 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $8.02 | $13,151,817,212 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $8.02 | $13,151,817,212 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $8.05 | $13,151,817,212 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $8.05 | $13,151,817,212 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $8.06 | $13,179,496,064 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $8.06 | $13,198,429,398 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $8.08 | $13,230,384,362 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $8.08 | $13,243,133,028 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $8.08 | $13,243,133,028 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $8.11 | $13,267,838,888 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $8.11 | $13,267,838,888 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $8.11 | $13,267,838,888 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $8.13 | $13,300,303,482 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $8.13 | $13,300,303,482 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $8.13 | $13,300,303,482 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $8.13 | $13,300,303,482 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $8.13 | $13,300,303,482 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $8.13 | $13,300,303,482 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $8.13 | $13,300,303,482 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $8.15 | $13,316,141,549 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $8.15 | $13,316,141,549 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $8.15 | $13,316,141,549 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $8.15 | $13,316,141,549 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $8.15 | $13,316,141,549 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $8.15 | $13,316,141,549 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $8.15 | $13,316,141,549 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $8.15 | $13,316,141,549 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $8.15 | $13,316,141,549 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $8.15 | $13,316,141,549 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $8.15 | $13,316,141,549 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $8.15 | $13,316,141,549 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $8.15 | $13,316,141,549 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $8.16 | $13,316,141,549 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $8.16 | $13,316,141,549 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $8.16 | $13,316,141,549 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $8.16 | $13,316,141,549 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $8.16 | $13,316,141,549 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $8.16 | $13,316,141,549 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.60 | $13,958,672,110 | 12 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 5 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.