Expeditors International (EXPD)
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$197.69-3.24%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EXPD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 28.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 23.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
EXPD — dividend update
Dated 2026-11-03
Other Events. On November 3, 2026, Expeditors International of Washington, Inc., a Washington corporation, issued a press release announcing a semi-annual cash dividend. A copy of the press release is filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.
Why it matters: The company expects most staff cuts from the reset in Q3 and about $50 million in yearly savings. The result will test whether costs fall as planned.
Supportive ifQ3 results show lower staff costs. Management confirms progress toward about $50 million in yearly savings.
Worry ifQ3 staff costs do not fall, or management cuts or delays the $50 million yearly savings goal.
Why it matters: Air tonnage rose 14% in Q2 amid strong AI demand and tight space. Lower tonnage or weaker rates could cut into that growth.
Watch forQ3 air tonnage rises from a year ago. Management says technology customers have firm demand.
Also watch forQ3 air tonnage falls year over year, or management reports weaker demand and lower air rates.
Why it matters: Ocean volume rose 7% from Q1, and profit per container improved in Q2. A fresh decline would weaken signs of a market turn.
Worry ifQ3 ocean volume falls year over year, or profit per container drops from Q2.
Less concerning ifQ3 ocean volume rises year over year and profit per container holds at or above Q2.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$81 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $228 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,588 loss on $10,000 · 15.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.