Expeditors International (EXPD)
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$188.80+0.89%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EXPD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 34.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
EXPD — litigation filed
Dated 2026-05-20
Regulation FD Disclosure. The following information is included in this document as a result of Expeditors' policy regarding public disclosure of corporate information. SAFE HARBOR FOR FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS UNDER SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995; CERTAIN CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS Certain portions of this document contain forward-looking statements, which are based on certain assumptions and expectations of future events that are subject to risks and uncertainties. These forward-looki…
Why it matters: A drop in operating income may mean issues with managing costs. It can also show trouble making money.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $250 million in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating income stays above $250 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Legal issues can hurt money matters. They can also distract from running the business.
Worry ifThey resolved a lawsuit with a good outcome for Expeditors.
Less concerning ifNew lawsuits or bad rulings may arise.
Why it matters: Airfreight tonnage growth shows strong demand. It also means better operations and more revenue.
Supportive ifQ3 airfreight tonnage growth above 10% year over year.
Worry ifAirfreight tonnage growth below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Trends in ocean container volume affect total revenue and profits.
Worry ifQ2 ocean container volume decreases year over year by more than 5%.
Less concerning ifQ2 ocean container volume goes up or stays steady compared to last year.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$82 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $219 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,588 loss on $10,000 · 15.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Falling ocean freight revenue shows market challenges. This affects overall profits.
Worry ifOcean freight revenue declines more than 5% year over year in Q2.
Less concerning ifOcean freight revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in EPS may show trouble in keeping profits during market pressures.
Worry ifQ2 2026 EPS reported below $1.50.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 EPS reported at or above $1.50.
Why it matters: Customs brokerage revenue growth reflects demand from high-value customers. A slowdown may signal market weakness.
Worry ifQ3 customs brokerage revenue growth below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 customs brokerage revenue growth remains above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: The new $3 billion share buyback plan shows that management wants to return cash to shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement shares news about the $3 billion share buyback plan.
Worry ifThere are no updates or delays about the share buyback plan.
Why it matters: Positive growth in ocean container volume would signal recovery in the ocean freight market. It shows demand is improving after a downturn.
Supportive ifOcean container volume growth is positive for two quarters in a row.
Worry ifOcean container volume falls for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: A bigger drop in ocean volumes might show serious problems in the ocean freight market.
Worry ifOcean container volume decline worse than -6% year over year in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifOcean container volume decline improves to better than -6% year over year in Q2 2026.