Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-02 · fmp
Exponent, Inc. (EXPO)
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$85.83-1.83%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.63 → 2.71 EPS · FY ending Jan 2, 2028 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for EXPO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Share repurchase authorization increased by $50M | A supporting condition in Exponent, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Additional $50 million share repurchase authorization in 2026-Q1. | Intact | No further share repurchase authorization or buybacks in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-02 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
EXPO is a quality-growth business, with recent revenue and margin performance supporting its long-term thesis. That thesis remains intact, but near-term execution risk has increased after an earnings miss and a sharp drop in company momentum.
The shares carry a durable premium and are expensive versus peers. The evidence rates expectations as unjustified, with a sizable gap between the premium and what current execution supports.
Over the multi-year view, continued demand for specialized services could support revenue growth, while recent results show management’s growth and margin priorities are on track. Near term, the latest earnings miss and consecutive-miss concern raise execution risk, despite a low stated miss probability.
A key swing factor is whether EXPO maintains its recently raised guidance; a reversal and guidance cut would also damage management credibility. Sector conditions matter too: continued strong results and guidance from PWR, FIX, and EME could support Industrials momentum, while misses or lower guidance could weaken that backdrop.
The 1-to-3-year thesis remains intact but faces a higher near-term execution risk, and the premium valuation increases the importance of delivering on guidance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Exponent, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Quarterly dividend >= $0.31 per share. |
| Intact |
| Dividend per share falls below $0.31 in 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stable leadership and operational strategy | A supporting condition in Exponent, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No major leadership disruptions impacting strategy. | Intact | Leadership changes cause operational setbacks or strategy shifts | No major disruptions; Q3 EPS beat & 2026 growth raised to 10-11% Q3 2026 earnings beat, 2026 revenue growth raised to 10-11%, and EBITDA margin outlook increased to 28-28.3%. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating margin near 27% | Profit margins stay near 27%. | Under Pressure | Operating margin falls below 26% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth near 8% annually | A primary condition in Exponent, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=7.9% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below ~7.9% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.54 → $2.71 · observed estimates
$0.63B → $0.64B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.54 | $628,602,215 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.54 | $628,602,215 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.54 | $628,602,215 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.54 | $628,602,215 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.54 | $628,602,215 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.54 | $628,602,215 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.54 | $628,602,215 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.58 | $632,512,549 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.58 | $632,512,549 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.60 | $635,033,404 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.60 | $635,033,404 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.60 | $635,033,404 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.60 | $635,033,404 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.60 | $635,033,404 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.60 | $635,033,404 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.60 | $635,033,404 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.60 | $635,033,404 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.60 | $635,033,404 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.60 | $635,033,404 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.60 | $635,033,404 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.60 | $635,033,404 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.60 | $635,033,404 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.60 | $635,033,404 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.60 | $635,033,404 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.60 | $635,033,404 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.60 | $635,033,404 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.60 | $635,033,404 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.62 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.62 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.62 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.63 | $633,034,606 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.63 | $633,034,606 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.63 | $633,034,606 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.63 | $633,034,606 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.63 | $633,034,606 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.63 | $633,034,606 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.63 | $633,034,606 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.63 | $633,034,606 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.63 | $633,034,606 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.63 | $633,034,606 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.63 | $633,034,606 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.63 | $633,034,606 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.63 | $633,034,606 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.63 | $633,034,606 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.63 | $633,034,606 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.63 | $633,034,606 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.63 | $633,034,606 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.63 | $633,034,606 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.63 | $633,034,606 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.63 | $633,034,606 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.63 | $633,034,606 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.63 | $633,034,606 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.63 | $633,034,606 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.63 | $633,034,606 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.63 | $633,350,106 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.71 | $643,638,968 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.71 | $643,638,968 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.71 | $643,638,968 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.71 | $643,644,968 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.71 | $643,644,968 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.