Exponent, Inc. (EXPO)
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$68.35-2.43%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EXPO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 40.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 41.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers
EXPO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-04-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Exponent, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended April 3, 2026. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference.
Why it matters: Steady dividend growth shows strong cash flow and a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifQ2 dividend announced at or above $0.31 per share.
Worry ifQ2 dividend announced below $0.31 per share.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change the company's path and how well it does.
Watch forSuccessful election of Richard Schlenker to the Board of Directors.
Also watch forFailure of Richard Schlenker's election to the Board of Directors.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Exponent can enhance operating income as planned. This is key for future growth.
Watch forQ2 earnings report shows operating income growth year over year.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows operating income decline year over year.
Why it matters: An increase would signal strong cash flow and commitment to returning value to shareholders. It reflects financial health.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase from $0.31 per share.
Worry ifNo increase in the dividend from the current $0.31 per share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$141 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $286 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,245 loss on $10,000 · 32.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can impact company plans and results. This is true in a complex market.
Watch forWatch for good market reactions. Look for better performance after the leadership changes.
Also watch forWatch for bad market reactions. Look for worse performance after the leadership changes.
Why it matters: New leadership could drive changes in strategy and growth. Monitoring this will show how Exponent adapts to market needs.
Supportive ifLook for a press release about new plans from the new President or CFO.
Worry ifNo big news or changes in plans from leaders after May 1.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops below this level, it may show less demand for Exponent's services.
Worry ifRevenues before reimbursements grow less than 8% year over year in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifRevenues before reimbursements grow at least 8% year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: New leaders may change Exponent's focus and impact its growth path.
Watch forJohn Pye's leadership brings new growth plans within 6 months.
Also watch forNo new growth plans announced or the current strategy stays the same.
Why it matters: The new leadership team needs to show they can maintain growth and innovation.
Watch forRevenue growth remains strong and exceeds 10% in Q4 2026.
Also watch forRevenue growth drops below 8% in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: The dividend news shows Exponent wants to return value to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend of $0.31 is paid on September 18, 2026.
Worry ifDividend is reduced or not paid on September 18, 2026.
Why it matters: News about share buybacks can show that management believes in the company's value.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of more share buyback approval beyond the current $50 million.
Worry ifNo new announcements on share repurchase programs.
Why it matters: How well new leaders perform could affect Exponent's plans and growth.
Watch forGood feedback from clients or analysts about the leadership change and its effects.
Also watch forThere is bad feedback. People worry that the leadership change will hurt company performance.
Why it matters: Completing this buyback shows confidence in the company's value and can support share price.
Supportive ifThe company finished its $50 million share buyback program.
Worry ifThere is no news about finishing or delaying the share buyback program.
Why it matters: A drop below this level may mean higher costs or problems in operations.
Worry ifEBITDA margin falls below 27.8% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifEBITDA margin remains at or above 27.8% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: New leaders may change Exponent's plans and how the company works.
Watch forJohn Pye is confirmed as President and Eric Anderson as CFO after the June 4 meeting.
Also watch forLeadership changes are delayed or not confirmed at the June 4 meeting.