Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
National Vision Holdings (EYE)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$17.85-0.50%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.21 → 1.20 EPS · FY ending Jan 3, 2028 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for EYE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operations grows to support investments | Cash from operations jumped from $13.2 million to $61.7 million, supporting growth. | Intact | Cash from operations falls below $40 million in FY26-Q1 | Cash from operations: $8.11M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations >= $60 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 13, 20268,110,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
EYE is a profitable-growth and execution story, with recent results showing improving operating margins alongside modest store expansion. The long-term thesis is intact, but confidence is medium because risk is elevated and valuation is expensive.
EYE is valued at a premium to peers, and its valuation has risen recently as its signal improved. The evidence labels expectations as justified and fragility as low, but the negative expectations gap suggests the market may already assume more than the business has yet delivered.
Near term, recent earnings beats and higher guidance support the picture of strong performance, while management has consistently delivered on profitable growth, store expansion, and cost discipline. Margins and adjusted operating income improved, but the smaller-cap profile and a deep miss in recent history leave some risk; a guidance cut after the recent increase would also damage credibility.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on management continuing to grow revenue and margins while attracting higher-value customers and expanding stores. Near term, guidance follow-through matters, as does the health of consumer discretionary companies such as AMZN, BABA, and PDD, whose results may signal whether the sector tailwind persists.
EYE’s long-term thesis remains intact, backed by improving profitability and consistent execution, but its premium valuation and elevated risk make guidance delivery and continued margin progress central to the multi-year view. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in National Vision Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is Operating income >= $45 million. |
| Intact |
| Operating income falls below $30 million in FY26-Q1 |
Operating income: $21.302M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $45 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 13, 202621,302,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 5% annually | A primary condition in National Vision Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY revenue growth. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 5% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 2.55% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 20262.545521 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.18 → $1.20 · observed estimates
$2.18B → $2.16B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.18 | $2,182,539,985 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.18 | $2,182,539,985 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.18 | $2,182,539,985 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.18 | $2,182,542,749 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.18 | $2,182,542,749 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.18 | $2,182,542,749 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.18 | $2,182,542,749 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.18 | $2,182,542,749 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.18 | $2,182,542,749 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.18 | $2,182,542,749 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.18 | $2,182,454,204 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.18 | $2,182,454,204 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.18 | $2,182,454,204 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.18 | $2,182,454,204 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.18 | $2,182,454,204 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.18 | $2,182,454,204 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.18 | $2,182,454,204 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.18 | $2,182,454,204 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.18 | $2,182,454,204 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.18 | $2,182,454,204 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.18 | $2,182,454,204 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.18 | $2,182,454,204 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.18 | $2,182,454,204 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.18 | $2,182,454,204 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.18 | $2,182,454,204 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.18 | $2,182,454,204 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.18 | $2,182,454,204 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.21 | $2,165,200,938 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.21 | $2,165,200,938 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.21 | $2,165,200,938 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.21 | $2,165,200,938 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.21 | $2,165,200,938 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.21 | $2,165,200,938 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.21 | $2,165,200,938 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.21 | $2,165,200,938 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.21 | $2,165,200,938 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.21 | $2,165,200,938 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.21 | $2,165,200,938 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.21 | $2,165,200,938 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.20 | $2,160,521,032 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.20 | $2,160,521,032 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.20 | $2,160,523,732 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.20 | $2,160,523,732 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.20 | $2,160,523,732 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.20 | $2,160,523,732 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.20 | $2,160,523,732 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.20 | $2,160,523,732 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.20 | $2,160,523,732 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.20 | $2,160,523,732 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.20 | $2,160,523,732 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.21 | $2,163,776,120 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.21 | $2,163,776,120 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.21 | $2,163,776,120 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.21 | $2,163,776,120 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.21 | $2,163,776,120 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.21 | $2,163,776,120 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.21 | $2,163,776,120 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.21 | $2,163,776,120 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.21 | $2,163,776,120 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.21 | $2,163,776,120 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.21 | $2,163,776,120 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.21 | $2,163,776,120 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.21 | $2,163,776,120 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.21 | $2,163,776,120 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.21 | $2,163,776,120 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.21 | $2,163,776,120 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.21 | $2,163,776,120 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.21 | $2,163,774,591 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.21 | $2,163,774,591 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.21 | $2,163,774,591 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.21 | $2,163,774,591 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.21 | $2,163,774,591 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.21 | $2,163,774,591 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.21 | $2,163,774,591 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.21 | $2,163,774,591 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.21 | $2,163,774,591 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.21 | $2,163,774,591 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.21 | $2,163,774,591 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.21 | $2,163,774,591 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.21 | $2,163,774,591 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.21 | $2,163,774,591 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.21 | $2,163,774,591 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.21 | $2,163,774,591 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.21 | $2,163,774,591 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.21 | $2,163,774,591 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.21 | $2,163,774,591 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.21 | $2,163,774,591 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.21 | $2,163,774,591 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.21 | $2,163,774,591 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.20 | $2,162,303,549 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.20 | $2,162,303,549 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.20 | $2,162,303,549 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.20 | $2,162,303,549 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.20 | $2,162,303,549 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.20 | $2,162,303,549 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.20 | $2,162,303,549 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.20 | $2,162,303,549 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.20 | $2,162,303,549 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.20 | $2,162,303,549 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.20 | $2,162,303,549 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.20 | $2,162,303,549 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.20 | $2,162,303,549 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.20 | $2,162,303,549 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.20 | $2,162,303,549 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.20 | $2,162,303,549 | 4 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.