National Vision Holdings (EYE)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$17.85-0.50%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EYE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -17.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 4.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 14 industry peers
Why it matters: Falling below this level could signal a slowdown in revenue growth momentum.
Worry ifQ2 net revenue reported below $500 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 net revenue reported above $550 million.
Why it matters: Opening new stores is crucial for growth and expanding market reach.
Supportive ifThe company opens 30 or more new stores in the fiscal year.
Worry ifThe company opens fewer than 30 new stores in the fiscal year.
Why it matters: Opening more than 35 new stores would show strong expansion and growth potential.
Supportive ifTotal new store openings exceed 35 for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifTotal new store openings are 35 or fewer for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in net income margin shows worsening profitability. This could worry investors.
Worry ifNet income margin reported below 2.5% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet income margin reported above 2.5% for Q3 2026.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$134 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $514 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,759 loss on $10,000 · 47.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Strong growth in operating income shows good cost control. It also shows efficiency in operations.
Supportive ifOperating income growth was above 30% compared to last year.
Worry ifOperating income growth was below 20% compared to last year.
Why it matters: A lower EPS means profit growth is not meeting hopes. This can hurt stock feelings.
Worry ifQ2 adjusted diluted EPS was below $0.85.
Less concerning ifQ2 adjusted diluted EPS was above $1.09.
Why it matters: Starting buybacks shows management's confidence in the stock. It shows they want to return value to shareholders.
Supportive ifThey announced share buybacks using the remaining $30 million.
Worry ifNo share buybacks announced or done in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Higher SG&A may mean cost problems. This could hurt operating margins.
Worry ifSG&A expenses as a percentage of revenue increases from 48.8% in Q2.
Less concerning ifSG&A expenses as a percentage of revenue decreases or stays below 48.8%.
Why it matters: This report will give updates on revenue growth and profit. These are key for checking the company's health.
Watch forEarnings report shows net revenue growth above 4.0% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows net revenue growth below 4.0% year over year.
Why it matters: This would suggest that cash flow is weakening, which could affect growth initiatives.
Worry ifCash from operations reported below $50 million for Q2.
Less concerning ifCash from operations reported above $70 million for Q2.
Why it matters: Growing the store count would indicate strong expansion efforts and confidence in future growth.
Supportive ifStore count reaches 1,300 or more by the end of Q2.
Worry ifStore count remains below 1,250 by the end of Q2.
Why it matters: The company had 1,281 stores at Q2 and plans 30–35 new stores in 2026. Openings and closures will show whether the footprint is growing as planned.
Supportive ifThe Q3 report shows more stores than 1,281 and keeps the 2026 plan at 30–35 new stores.
Worry ifThe Q3 report shows 1,281 or fewer stores, or cuts the 2026 plan below 30 new stores.
Why it matters: Store count grew 3.3% through Q2, and new stores remain part of the growth plan. Falling short would weaken the footprint expansion record.
Supportive ifThe company opens 30–35 new stores in fiscal 2026. Most are America's Best stores.
Worry ifThe company reports fewer than 30 new stores for fiscal 2026 or cuts its 30–35 store plan.
Why it matters: Slower revenue growth may mean fewer customers and lower sales.
Worry ifNet revenue growth reported below 6.0% for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifNet revenue growth reported above 9.0% for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This would indicate better cash flow and support strategic investments.
Supportive ifCash from operations was over $70M.
Worry ifCash from operations was under $70M.
Why it matters: A drop in guidance shows weaker profits. It also means operational problems.
Worry ifThe new guidance for operating income is now less than $119 million.
Less concerning ifThe guidance for operating income is the same or more than $119 million.
Why it matters: Self-pay traffic was lower in Q2, while managed care customers and higher tickets helped sales. Q3 shows whether store sales stay above the 2026 floor.
Watch forQ3 adjusted comparable store sales growth is at least 3.0%, the bottom of the 2026 range.
Also watch forQ3 adjusted comparable store sales growth is below 3.0%, with self-pay traffic still down year over year.