National Vision Holdings (EYE)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$16.74-0.77%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EYE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -22.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 44 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: Strong growth in operating income shows good cost control. It also shows efficiency in operations.
Supportive ifOperating income growth was above 30% compared to last year.
Worry ifOperating income growth was below 20% compared to last year.
Why it matters: A lower EPS means profit growth is not meeting hopes. This can hurt stock feelings.
Worry ifQ2 adjusted diluted EPS was below $0.85.
Less concerning ifQ2 adjusted diluted EPS was above $1.09.
Why it matters: Updates may show management's trust in cash flow and value for shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of more share buybacks beyond the current $30 million limit.
Worry ifNo updates or reductions in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Higher SG&A may show cost problems. This affects profits and is key for margins.
Worry ifSG&A expenses as a percentage of revenue increases from 48.8% in Q2.
Less concerning ifSG&A expenses as a percentage of revenue decreases or stays the same.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$190 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $502 loss on $10,000 · 5.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,759 loss on $10,000 · 47.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This would suggest that cash flow is weakening, which could affect growth initiatives.
Worry ifCash from operations reported below $50 million for Q2.
Less concerning ifCash from operations reported above $70 million for Q2.
Why it matters: Growing the store count would indicate strong expansion efforts and confidence in future growth.
Supportive ifStore count reaches 1,300 or more by the end of Q2.
Worry ifStore count remains below 1,250 by the end of Q2.
Why it matters: A drop in net income margin may mean higher costs or lower sales. This can hurt the company's ability to make money.
Worry ifNet income margin reported below 5.0% in Q2.
Less concerning ifNet income margin reported above 6.0% in Q2.
Why it matters: Falling below this level could signal a slowdown in revenue growth momentum.
Worry ifQ2 net revenue reported below $500 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 net revenue reported above $550 million.
Why it matters: Opening 30 or more new stores would show strong growth momentum and execution of expansion plans. This supports long-term growth and market share.
Supportive ifThe company opens 30 or more new stores by year-end.
Worry ifThe company opens fewer than 30 new stores by year-end.
Why it matters: Opening more stores than planned shows strong growth momentum. It indicates confidence in market demand.
Supportive ifThe company opens more than 35 new stores in fiscal 2026.
Worry ifThe company opens 30 or fewer new stores in fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Slower revenue growth may mean fewer customers and lower sales.
Worry ifNet revenue growth reported below 6.0% for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifNet revenue growth reported above 9.0% for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This would indicate better cash flow and support strategic investments.
Supportive ifCash from operations was over $70M.
Worry ifCash from operations was under $70M.
Why it matters: This measure tests if the company's growth strategy is still effective. A drop below 3.0% could signal trouble.
Worry ifAdjusted store sales growth was below 3.0% for Q3.
Less concerning ifAdjusted store sales growth was above 3.0% for Q3.