Fastenal (FAST)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial DistributionSnapshot 2026-07-07
$47.11-2.48%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $47.11. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $47 the market pays 41× p/e — above the 27× p/e peer median but in line with its own 44× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $36 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts target $42–$50. Note: our $36 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($42–$50). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $52 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$42.00 – $50.00 (median $46.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-07-06
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 130% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 12.5 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $1.10/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $46.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $23.63 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $23.76 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $9.43 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $27.46 | 27.2 | 1.01 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $30.47 | 26.7 | 1.14 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $8.03 | 1.1 | 7.34 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $29.61 | 26.0 | 1.14 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $6.87 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $49.58 | 43.5 | 1.14 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $30.47 | 26.7 | 1.14 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $34.45 | 27.2 | 1.27 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $43.43 | 26.7 | 1.62 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $11.22 | 1.1 | 10.26 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $42.21 | 26.0 | 1.62 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $70.66 | 43.5 | 1.62 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $40.07 | 27.2 | 1.48 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $54.05 | 26.7 | 2.02 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $13.96 | 1.1 | 12.76 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $52.52 | 26.0 | 2.02 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $87.93 | 43.5 | 2.02 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.