Fastenal (FAST)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$53.21+1.68%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FAST
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 46.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FAST — earnings in line
Dated 2026-10-14
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 14, 2026, the Registrant issued a press release announcing the results of its most recently ended fiscal quarter, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Heavy manufacturing drove 20.2% growth in Q3 and made up 44.6% of sales. A sharp slowdown could weigh on overall growth.
Worry ifQ4 daily sales growth in heavy manufacturing is below 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ4 heavy manufacturing daily sales growth stays at or above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Fastenal lowered its 2026 goal to 27,000–29,000 device signings. Meeting the low end would show progress in its digital plan.
Supportive ifFastenal reports at least 27,000 weighted FASTBin and FASTVend signings for 2026.
Worry ifFastenal reports fewer than 27,000 weighted device signings for 2026.
Why it matters: Contract customers made up 76.5% of Q3 sales and grew 18.8%. Slower growth would weaken a key source of sales gains.
Worry ifQuarterly contract sales growth falls below 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifQuarterly contract sales growth stays at or above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Q3 margin rose to 21.5% as lower expense costs offset pressure from customer mix. A drop below 21% would reverse that gain.
Worry ifQ4 operating margin is below 21.0%.
Less concerning ifQ4 operating margin is at or above 21.0%.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$106 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $244 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,202 loss on $10,000 · 12.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.