Fastenal (FAST)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$49.60+0.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FAST
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 47.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 19 industry peers
FAST — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-14
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 14, 2026, the Registrant issued a press release announcing the results of its most recently ended fiscal quarter, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: New technology can make customer service better. It also helps the company compete.
Supportive ifNew tech projects or partnerships can make service delivery better.
Worry ifNo news on tech initiatives or delays in planned expansions.
Why it matters: Strong growth in FMI technology sales shows good digital change and customer use.
Supportive ifFMI technology sales grew more than 15% year over year.
Worry ifFMI technology sales grew less than 10% year over year.
Why it matters: These signings show how well Fastenal is expanding its digital solutions. Fewer signings could mean slower growth.
Worry ifWeighted FASTBin and FASTVend signings fall below 6,500 in Q3.
Less concerning ifSignings are over 6,500. This shows strong growth in digital.
Why it matters: Growth in digital solutions helps make sales better and improve profits.
Supportive ifWeighted FASTBin and FASTVend signings exceed 7,000 units in Q3.
Worry ifWeighted FASTBin and FASTVend signings fall below 6,500 units in Q3.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$113 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $254 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,975 loss on $10,000 · 19.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Daily sales growth is key to understanding demand trends. A drop signals potential issues.
Worry ifQ3 daily sales growth is below 12%. This shows demand is weakening.
Less concerning ifQ3 daily sales growth stays above 12%, showing continued strong demand.
Why it matters: Strong sales growth shows good account strategies and market demand.
Supportive ifQ3 daily sales growth exceeds 14%, indicating strong demand and market share gains.
Worry ifQ3 daily sales growth is below 12%. This means demand or execution may be weak.
Why it matters: More signings show that the technology is growing. This helps get more customers involved.
Supportive ifWeighted FASTBin and FASTVend signings exceed 30,000 MEUs for 2026.
Worry ifWeighted FASTBin and FASTVend signings fall below 28,000 MEUs for 2026.
Why it matters: CAPEX guidance shows a focus on growth. It also shows a focus on better operations.
Supportive ifManagement confirms CAPEX guidance of $310M to $330M for 2026.
Worry ifManagement lowers CAPEX guidance. This may show financial pressure.
Why it matters: Winning key accounts boosts sales effectiveness. This is crucial for sustaining growth in a maturing sector.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new key account wins that contribute to sales growth.
Worry ifNo new key account wins announced, or existing accounts show declining sales.
Why it matters: CAPEX is crucial for growth. Lower spending could signal reduced investment in future growth.
Worry ifCAPEX spending for 2026 is reported below $310M.
Less concerning ifCAPEX spending is $310M or more. This shows strong investment.
Why it matters: Operating margin shows how well costs are controlled. A drop means costs may rise.
Worry ifOperating margin falls below 20% in Q3.
Less concerning ifOperating margin is 20% or more. This shows good cost management.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change company goals and impact performance.
Watch forNew CEO Jeff Watts shares plans that match growth goals.
Also watch forNew CEO Jeff Watts fails to articulate a clear strategy or vision.
Why it matters: Winning key accounts is crucial for sustained revenue growth and market share.
Supportive ifManagement says contract sales are more than 75% of total sales.
Worry ifContract sales drop below 73% of total sales.
Why it matters: A steady or better operating margin shows good cost control. This helps profits.
Supportive ifOperating margin remains at or above 21.0% in Q3.
Worry ifOperating margin drops below 20.0% in Q3.