Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Fastenal (FAST)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$53.21+1.68%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.41 → 1.41 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FAST yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
CAPEX increases to $310-330 million in FY26 | A supporting condition in Fastenal's published investment case. The stated target is CAPEX between $310M and $330M. | Intact | CAPEX falls below $235 million in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $74M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: CAPEX between $310M and $330M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 19, 202674,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FAST is a durable-business growth thesis with some cyclical exposure to industrial demand. Its thesis state is intact, supported by recent financial performance, while neutral management and earnings-quality signals temper confidence.
FAST is expensive versus peers, with a durable premium reflected in its valuation. The expectations gap is elevated, and valuation has risen recently, so the market appears to assume continued resilience and execution.
Near term, recent results have been strong relative to the industry, and the latest earnings update was in line. Digital sales and customer-site growth show progress on stated priorities, but recent misses in the company’s history and possible guidance cuts remain risks.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on FAST maintaining guidance and converting digital expansion and deeper customer-site penetration into sustained growth. Industrial sector signals matter too: continued strength among bellwethers would support the backdrop, while weaker results could remove that tailwind.
For the 1-to-3-year view, FAST has a sound operating story, but its expensive valuation and execution risks make continued delivery central to the thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit margins stay stable. |
| Intact |
| Profit margins decline enough to cause EPS below consensus |
Diluted EPS: $0.35 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Maintain profit margins near current levels. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 19, 20260.35 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net sales grow at least 11% YoY | A primary condition in Fastenal's published investment case. The stated target is >=11% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year | Revenue growth: 15.47% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=11% YoY revenue growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Oct 19, 202615.468992 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Continued progress on strategic initiatives , including increased sales effectiveness through key account wins, expansion of digital technologies, and deeper penetration through new customer site growth.” “Customer mix continued to shift toward larger customers, consistent with our strategic focus.” Revenue was $2.463 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.39 → $1.41 · observed estimates
$10.11B → $10.24B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.39 | $10,105,411,210 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.39 | $10,109,827,660 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.39 | $10,109,827,660 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.39 | $10,109,827,660 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.40 | $10,120,025,078 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.40 | $10,120,025,078 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.40 | $10,120,025,078 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.40 | $10,136,091,744 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.40 | $10,136,091,744 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.39 | $10,109,807,650 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.40 | $10,136,091,744 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.40 | $10,136,091,744 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.39 | $10,109,807,650 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.39 | $10,109,807,650 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.40 | $10,136,091,744 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.39 | $10,126,348,220 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.39 | $10,126,348,220 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.40 | $10,136,091,744 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.39 | $10,126,348,220 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.40 | $10,136,091,744 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.40 | $10,136,091,744 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.40 | $10,136,091,744 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.40 | $10,136,091,744 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.40 | $10,136,091,744 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.40 | $10,136,091,744 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.40 | $10,136,091,744 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.40 | $10,136,091,744 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.40 | $10,167,154,848 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.40 | $10,167,154,848 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.40 | $10,167,154,848 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.40 | $10,167,154,848 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.40 | $10,167,154,848 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.40 | $10,167,154,848 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.40 | $10,167,154,848 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.40 | $10,167,154,848 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.40 | $10,167,154,848 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.40 | $10,167,154,848 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.40 | $10,167,154,848 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.40 | $10,167,154,848 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.40 | $10,167,154,848 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.40 | $10,167,154,848 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.40 | $10,167,140,115 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.40 | $10,171,640,115 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.40 | $10,178,360,848 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.40 | $10,178,360,848 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.40 | $10,178,360,848 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.40 | $10,178,360,848 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.40 | $10,178,360,848 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.40 | $10,178,360,848 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.40 | $10,178,360,848 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.40 | $10,178,360,848 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.40 | $10,178,360,848 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.40 | $10,178,360,848 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.41 | $10,178,360,848 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.41 | $10,178,360,848 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.41 | $10,178,360,848 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.41 | $10,178,360,848 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.41 | $10,178,360,848 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.41 | $10,188,496,001 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.41 | $10,188,496,001 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.41 | $10,188,496,001 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.41 | $10,188,496,001 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.41 | $10,188,496,001 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.41 | $10,188,496,001 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.41 | $10,188,496,001 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.41 | $10,188,496,001 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.41 | $10,188,496,001 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.41 | $10,188,496,001 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.41 | $10,188,496,001 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.41 | $10,188,496,001 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.41 | $10,188,496,001 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.41 | $10,188,496,001 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.41 | $10,188,496,001 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.41 | $10,188,496,001 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.41 | $10,188,496,001 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.41 | $10,188,496,001 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.41 | $10,188,496,001 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.40 | $10,196,978,469 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.40 | $10,196,978,469 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.40 | $10,196,978,469 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.40 | $10,196,978,469 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.40 | $10,196,980,619 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.41 | $10,208,767,285 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.41 | $10,219,975,609 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.41 | $10,232,876,222 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.41 | $10,232,876,222 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.41 | $10,232,876,222 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.41 | $10,232,876,222 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.41 | $10,225,816,222 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.41 | $10,225,816,222 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.41 | $10,225,816,222 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.41 | $10,240,660,237 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.41 | $10,240,660,237 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.41 | $10,240,660,237 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.41 | $10,240,660,237 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.41 | $10,240,660,237 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.41 | $10,254,803,094 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.41 | $10,254,803,094 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.41 | $10,253,900,398 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.41 | $10,253,440,540 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.41 | $10,253,440,540 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.41 | $10,253,440,540 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.41 | $10,239,297,683 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.41 | $10,239,297,683 | 12 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 5 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.