Fastenal (FAST)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$49.60+0.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Fastenal grows sales about 12% yearly by winning key accounts. Profit margins stay stable. The company invests more in its business with rising capital spending. It has a strong local sales model with 3,200 locations.
Fastenal trades at a high price with a PE of 41. Sales growth could slow below 7%. Rising costs or weaker demand could hurt profits.
The price is about 32% above our fair value near $36. Analysts expect 11.5% revenue growth, which matches our view.
Breaks if: CAPEX falls below $235 million in FY26
Breaks if: Profit margins decline enough to cause EPS below consensus
YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on improving sales effectiveness and expanding technology solutions. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance.
The market has priced in an expensive valuation, reflecting a durable premium compared to peers. There is an expectations gap, indicating that the current valuation may not be justified given the company's execution quality.
Management is on track with key priorities, such as increasing sales effectiveness and expanding digital solutions. However, there is a moderate risk due to the company's recent history of misses, which could impact future performance.
The future performance of FAST hinges on sector bellwethers like GWW, FERG, and WCC. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support FAST's growth; however, any negative guidance from them could pose a risk.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. Fastenal's construction sales grew about 17% in Q2 2026. This marks the second straight quarter of strong growth. The company gained from increased demand in infrastructure and data centers. Daily sales also increased 14.7% in Q2, up from 12.4% in Q1. The broader industrial environment is improving, providing support for Fastenal.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Overall, the outlook for FAST in the next 1 to 3 years is cautiously optimistic, but it faces challenges from sector dynamics and valuation concerns. Not investment advice.