Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
First Business Financial Services, Inc. (FBIZ)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$74.87-3.16%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.95 → 7.08 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FBIZ yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Deliver above-average shareholder returns including dividend growth | Dividend per share increased to $0.34, showing commitment to shareholder returns. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.34 in next 4 quarters | Dividend per share: $0.34 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Maintain or increase dividend per share from $0.34 in 2026-Q1. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 30, 20260.34 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FBIZ is a regional bank with a growth-focused, durable-premium profile rather than a turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is intact, supported by recent earnings beats and balance-sheet growth, but evidence on risk control is mixed.
The valuation is stretched, with a durable premium of 1.27 times peers and a positive expectations gap of 0.19. The evidence points to some expectations of continued quality and growth, but low overall fragility means the full combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulent conditions is not concentrated in the current setup.
Near-term, management is delivering on growth: third-quarter loans rose 10.2% year over year and core deposits rose 14.9%, with deposit growth more than funding loan growth. The SBA 7(a) exit was completed and linked-quarter operating expenses declined, but non-performing assets and their share of total assets increased; the recent earnings beat also came with a sharp drop in the company momentum measure. A guidance cut remains a meaningful near-term risk, though the supplied miss-risk assessment is low.
Over the next few quarters, the key question is whether loan and deposit growth continues without further deterioration in credit measures. A guidance cut or Fed rate cuts would be unfavorable under the supplied scenarios, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
For the 1-to-3-year view, the growth case remains intact, but stretched valuation and mixed credit trends make sustained execution central to the thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Our momentum in the first quarter positions us to achieve our full-year target of 10% growth and above-average shareholder returns while maintaining disciplined risk management."” “We believe efficient execution of these growth strategies will continue to support strong shareholder returns while maintaining disciplined risk management."”
EPS at least $2.00 in fiscal year 2026 | Earnings per share are expected to be at least $2.00 next year. | Intact | EPS falls below $2.00 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $1.95 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.00 EPS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 20261.95 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve 10% revenue growth for fiscal year 2026 | A primary condition in First Business Financial Services, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below ~-15% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 4.36% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 20264.359489 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.73 → $7.08 · observed estimates
$0.20B → $0.20B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.73 | $197,950,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.73 | $197,950,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.73 | $197,950,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.73 | $197,950,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.73 | $197,950,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.73 | $197,950,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.73 | $197,950,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.73 | $197,950,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.73 | $197,950,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.83 | $198,000,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.83 | $198,000,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.83 | $198,000,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.89 | $198,250,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.89 | $198,250,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $6.83 | $198,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.83 | $198,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.83 | $198,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.83 | $198,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.83 | $198,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.83 | $198,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.83 | $198,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.83 | $198,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.83 | $198,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.93 | $198,250,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.95 | $198,575,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.95 | $198,575,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.95 | $198,575,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.95 | $198,575,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.95 | $198,575,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.95 | $198,575,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.95 | $198,575,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.95 | $198,575,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.95 | $198,575,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.95 | $198,575,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.95 | $198,575,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.95 | $198,575,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.95 | $198,575,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.95 | $198,575,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.95 | $198,575,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.95 | $198,575,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.95 | $198,575,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.95 | $198,575,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.95 | $198,575,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.95 | $198,575,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.95 | $198,575,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.95 | $198,575,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.95 | $198,575,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.95 | $198,575,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.95 | $198,575,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.95 | $198,575,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.95 | $198,575,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.95 | $198,575,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.95 | $198,575,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.99 | $198,825,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.99 | $198,825,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.99 | $198,825,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.08 | $198,575,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.08 | $198,575,000 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.