First Business Financial Services, Inc. (FBIZ)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$72.83+1.10%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FBIZ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -16.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
FBIZ — officer change
Dated 2026-04-14
The filing details the vesting of Performance Restricted Stock Units for executive officers based on company performance goals.
Why it matters: More non-performing assets may show weaker asset quality. This could mean poor risk management.
Worry ifNon-performing assets rise above $40 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifNon-performing assets are under $40 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Net interest margin is crucial for profitability. A drop could signal pressure on earnings.
Worry ifNet interest margin was below 3.60%.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin reported at or above 3.60%.
Why it matters: Changes in interest rates can affect the bank's net interest margin. This is crucial for profitability.
Watch forNet interest margin goes above 3.65% after the FOMC meeting on July 29.
Also watch forNet interest margin falls below 3.50% after the FOMC meeting on July 29.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below the median, it signals a slowdown in the sector. This could impact First Business Financial's performance.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth drops below the median of the last three years.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth stays above the median of the last three years.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$89 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $216 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,325 loss on $10,000 · 13.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The financial sector's growth trajectory is easing. A drop below median growth could signal broader issues.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median level.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above median levels.
Why it matters: Strong core deposits help loans grow. This supports overall financial stability.
Supportive ifCore deposits grow year-over-year by more than 10% in Q3.
Worry ifCore deposits grow less than 10% year-over-year in Q3.
Why it matters: Meeting the revenue growth target shows the company is on track with its goals. This supports investor confidence in management's strategy.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth of 10% or more compared to Q2 2025.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth below 9% compared to Q2 2025.
Why it matters: Non-interest income growth helps diversify revenue. A slowdown may show problems in their growth plans.
Worry ifNon-interest income growth was below 15% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifNon-interest income growth is 15% or more compared to last year.
Why it matters: Leaving the SBA lending market could impact future earnings and focus.
Watch forEarnings from redirected resources are over $0.03 per share in Q3.
Also watch forEarnings benefit from redirected resources is less than $0.03 per share in Q3.
Why it matters: Loan growth is key to meeting the 10% annual growth goal. A drop signals trouble.
Worry ifQ3 loan growth was less than 10% from last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 loan growth reported at or above 10% year-over-year.
Why it matters: More non-performing assets mean higher credit risk. This can hurt earnings.
Worry ifNon-performing assets are more than 0.9% of total assets.
Less concerning ifNon-performing assets are less than 0.9% of total assets.
Why it matters: Net interest margin is crucial for profitability. A drop below 3.60% may signal issues.
Worry ifQ3 net interest margin was below 3.60%.
Less concerning ifQ3 net interest margin reported at or above 3.60%.
Why it matters: Tangible book value growth reflects overall financial health. A decline may concern investors.
Worry ifQ3 tangible book value growth was below 10% from last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 tangible book value growth reported at or above 10% year-over-year.