Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
First Bancorp (Southern Pines NC) (FBNC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$64.77-1.86%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.93 → 5.03 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FBNC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage total assets growth to $12.8 billion or more | The company manages its balance sheet well with assets growing to $12.8 billion. | Intact | Total assets fall below $12.6 billion | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FBNC is a regional bank with a thesis tied to margin growth, cost control, and expansion in South Carolina. Its thesis state is watch: recent financial performance is weak versus its industry cohort, while management execution and earnings quality are mixed.
The valuation model places FBNC at a 1.27 premium to peers, with a modest expectations gap and medium confidence. The premium is treated as justified by durable qualities, but valuation is still rated expensive, so expectations already allow for continued strength.
In the near term, recent earnings beats are positive, but the supplied evidence also flags a history of a deep miss and recent peer misses; the estimated miss risk is low. Over the multi-year view, net interest margin and net interest income have improved, while the efficiency ratio has fallen, though expenses rose and the First Carolina acquisition remains pending.
The thesis depends on continued margin expansion and expense control, as well as substantive progress on the pending acquisition. A guidance cut or rate cuts from the current level would be unfavorable; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers would support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, FBNC’s improving margins offer support, but weak relative performance, mixed execution, and an expensive valuation leave the long-term thesis dependent on steady delivery. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in First Bancorp (Southern Pines NC)'s published investment case. The stated target is Noninterest expenses <= $60 million. |
| Intact |
| Noninterest expenses exceed $62 million |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Expand net interest margin to at least 3.46% | A primary condition in First Bancorp (Southern Pines NC)'s published investment case. The stated target is >=3.46% net interest margin. | Intact | Net interest margin falls below 3.3% | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain positive revenue growth | A primary condition in First Bancorp (Southern Pines NC)'s published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 5% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 6.78% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=5% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 2, 20266.781553 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.93 → $5.03 · observed estimates
$0.55B → $0.57B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.93 | $547,800,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.00 | $547,800,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.00 | $552,017,475 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.00 | $546,232,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.00 | $546,232,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.04 | $575,383,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.95 | $557,509,475 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.04 | $575,383,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.95 | $557,509,475 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.04 | $575,383,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.04 | $575,383,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.04 | $575,383,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.04 | $575,383,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.04 | $575,383,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.05 | $575,588,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.05 | $575,588,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.05 | $575,588,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $5.05 | $575,588,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.93 | $566,409,475 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.93 | $566,408,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.93 | $566,408,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.93 | $566,408,725 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.93 | $566,408,725 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.93 | $566,408,725 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.93 | $566,408,725 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.93 | $566,408,725 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.93 | $566,408,725 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.93 | $566,408,725 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.93 | $566,408,725 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.93 | $566,408,725 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.93 | $566,408,725 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.93 | $566,408,725 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.93 | $566,408,725 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.95 | $568,105,325 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.95 | $568,105,325 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.96 | $568,105,325 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.96 | $568,105,325 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.96 | $568,105,325 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.96 | $568,105,325 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.96 | $568,105,325 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.96 | $568,105,325 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.96 | $568,105,325 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.96 | $568,105,325 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.96 | $568,105,325 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.96 | $568,105,325 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.96 | $568,105,325 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.96 | $568,105,325 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.96 | $568,105,325 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.96 | $569,880,325 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.96 | $569,880,325 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.98 | $570,661,075 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.98 | $570,661,075 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.98 | $570,661,075 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.98 | $570,661,075 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.98 | $569,871,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.98 | $569,871,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.98 | $569,871,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.98 | $569,871,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.03 | $569,871,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.03 | $569,871,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.03 | $569,871,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.03 | $569,871,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-05 | $5.03 | $569,871,500 | 4 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.