First Bancorp (Southern Pines NC) (FBNC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$65.04+1.09%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FBNC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 6.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
FBNC — dividend update
Dated 2026-06-12
Other Events On June 12, 2026, First Bancorp (the "Company") issued a news release to announce a cash dividend. The Company reported that its board of directors had declared a cash dividend of $0.24 per share on its common stock payable on July 24, 2026 to shareholders of record as of June 30, 2026.
Why it matters: Controlling expenses is important for profits. A big rise could hurt earnings and trust from investors.
Worry ifNoninterest expenses are less than $60 million in the Q2 earnings report.
Less concerning ifNoninterest expenses are more than $62 million in the Q2 earnings report.
Why it matters: A lower efficiency ratio shows better cost control. It shows how well the company operates.
Supportive ifThe efficiency ratio drops to below 49.12% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifEfficiency ratio worsens to above 49.12% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A stable dividend shows strong financial health. It shows a commitment to giving value to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe dividend payout remains at $0.24 per share for the next period.
Worry ifThe dividend payout is cut or reduced in the next announcement.
Why it matters: Management wants to increase margins. This change affects how much money they make.
Supportive ifGross margin increases by at least 100 basis points compared to the previous quarter.
Worry ifGross margin decreases or remains flat compared to the previous quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$78 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $254 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,603 loss on $10,000 · 16.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better margins show good management of asset yields. This is key for making money.
Supportive ifNet interest margin increases beyond 3.46% in Q2 results.
Worry ifNet interest margin goes down or stays the same. This shows problems with asset yields.
Why it matters: Closing this acquisition will expand First Bancorp's presence in South Carolina. It could enhance growth and market share.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will close by early 2027. All needed approvals are in place.
Worry ifThe acquisition may be delayed or fail. This could happen due to rules or shareholder problems.
Why it matters: Strong loan growth indicates healthy demand and can enhance net interest income.
Supportive ifTotal loans grow more than 5% annualized in Q2.
Worry ifLoan growth is below 3% each year. This may signal weakness.
Why it matters: Better margins show good asset management. This can help make more money.
Supportive ifNet interest margin exceeds 3.71% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 3.67% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Better margins show good asset management. This could help make more money.
Supportive ifNet interest margin exceeds 3.75% in the next quarter.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 3.65% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Higher costs can hurt profits. This can lower overall performance.
Worry ifNoninterest costs will be over $65 million next quarter.
Less concerning ifNoninterest costs may stay below $62 million next quarter.