First Capital, Inc. (FCAP)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$64.82+0.70%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FCAP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of —
Review the full earnings evidenceWhy it matters: Rising expenses can hurt profits and make it hard for management to control costs.
Worry ifQ3 noninterest expenses exceed $8.5 million, showing more than 10% growth from Q2.
Less concerning ifNoninterest expenses are under $8.5 million. This shows better cost control.
Why it matters: More nonperforming assets may mean credit problems. This can hurt overall performance.
Worry ifNonperforming assets were over $4.9 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifNonperforming assets stayed below or at $4.9 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow is key for growth. Better cash flow shows good management.
Supportive ifCash from operations exceeds $6.3 million in Q3.
Worry ifCash from operations falls below $6.3 million in Q3.
Why it matters: A steady or rising net interest margin shows good asset management. A drop may mean trouble.
Watch forNet interest margin in Q3 is above 3.98%.
Also watch forNet interest margin in Q3 drops below 3.98%.
Why it matters: Fewer nonperforming assets mean better loan quality. It also shows good risk management.
Supportive ifNonperforming assets drop below $4.0 million. This shows better asset quality.
Worry ifNonperforming assets rise above $4.9 million. This means loan quality is getting worse.
Why it matters: Earnings will show how well First Capital is doing. It will also show its place in the market.
Watch forThe earnings report shows a big rise in net income from last quarter.
Also watch forEarnings report shows a decline in net income compared to last quarter.
Why it matters: Revenue growth has been strong. A drop below median could signal a slowdown in the sector.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains at or above the median of 15% year over year.
Why it matters: A higher provision shows more risk in loans. It may lead to credit issues.
Worry ifProvision for credit losses is over $425,000. This signals loan quality concerns.
Less concerning ifProvision for credit losses is below $425,000. This shows stable credit quality.
Why it matters: Continued growth in net income shows the company's ability to deliver on its goals. Investors watch for this growth to confirm management's strategy.
Supportive ifQ3 net income exceeds $4.8 million, showing growth from Q2.
Worry ifQ3 net income falls below $4.8 million, indicating growth may be stalling.
Why it matters: Stable dividends show good financial health. They also show commitment to shareholders. A change can hurt investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 dividend per share remains at $0.31 or higher.
Worry ifIf Q3 dividend per share drops below $0.31, it may mean there are problems.
Why it matters: Rising net charge-offs can signal credit quality issues. Monitoring this helps assess risk in the loan portfolio.
Worry ifQ3 net charge-offs are over $58,000. This shows credit quality is getting worse.
Less concerning ifIf Q3 net charge-offs stay below $58,000, it means credit quality is stable.
Why it matters: A rising tax rate can reduce net income. Investors should monitor this to gauge overall profitability.
Worry ifQ3 effective tax rate is over 20.8%. This means a higher tax burden.
Less concerning ifIf Q3 effective tax rate is below 20.8%, it shows better tax management.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$114 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $430 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,251 loss on $10,000 · 32.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.