Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
First Commonwealth Financial, Corp. (FCF)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$21.08-2.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.95 → 2.02 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FCF yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend per share increase to at least $0.14 in Q1 2026 | It raised dividends from $0.13 to $0.14 per share. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.13 in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Dividend per share: $0.14 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.14 dividend per share in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 10, 20260.14 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FCF is a regional banking business with a measured, fundamentals-driven multi-year view, rather than a clear turnaround story. The thesis state is intact, and company momentum improved, but management execution and recent results remain mixed.
Valuation signals are broadly aligned with the business outlook, with a modest premium versus peers and only a small expectations gap. The evidence shows low fragility, so current expectations do not appear unusually vulnerable to a change in sentiment.
Near term, recent results show growth in net income and loans, while lower net charge-offs are offset by higher nonperforming loans and credit provision expense. Expenses rose and the core efficiency ratio worsened in the latest quarter, and the 2026-10-28 earnings miss adds to a run of recent misses.
The multi-year view depends on profitable growth continuing while credit costs and expenses improve. A guidance cut or lower interest rates would be unfavorable near term, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, FCF’s thesis has support from growth and improved momentum, but credit quality, expense control, and repeated earnings misses remain important tests. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Net income growth to at least $37.5 million in Q1 2026 |
| First Commonwealth Financial grows net income from $32.7M to $37.5M in one year. |
| Intact |
| net income falls below $32.7 million in any quarter after 2026-Q1 |
Net income: $44.943M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $37.5 million net income in Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 28, 202644,943,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income growth to at least $47.2 million in Q1 2026 | Profit improved with operating income rising from $41M to $47.2M. | Intact | operating income falls below $41 million in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Operating income: $50.675M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $47.2 million operating income in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 28, 202650,675,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth near consensus -5% decline or better in next 12 months | A supporting condition in First Commonwealth Financial, Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is revenue decline no worse than -5% YoY. | Intact | revenue decline worse than -5% YoY over next 12 months | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.97 → $2.02 · observed estimates
$0.59B → $0.60B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.97 | $591,487,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.97 | $592,409,250 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.97 | $591,487,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.97 | $592,409,250 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.97 | $591,487,400 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.97 | $592,409,250 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.97 | $592,409,250 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.97 | $590,197,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.97 | $590,197,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.97 | $590,197,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.97 | $590,197,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.97 | $590,197,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.97 | $590,197,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.97 | $590,197,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.97 | $589,637,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.97 | $589,337,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.97 | $589,337,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.97 | $589,337,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.97 | $589,337,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.97 | $589,337,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.97 | $589,337,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.97 | $588,512,300 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.97 | $588,512,300 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.97 | $588,512,300 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.97 | $588,514,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.95 | $588,514,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.95 | $588,514,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.95 | $588,514,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.95 | $588,514,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.95 | $588,514,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.95 | $588,514,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.96 | $588,514,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.96 | $588,514,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.96 | $588,514,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.96 | $588,514,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.96 | $588,514,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.96 | $588,514,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.96 | $588,514,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.96 | $588,514,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.96 | $588,514,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.96 | $588,514,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.96 | $588,514,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.96 | $588,514,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.96 | $588,514,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.96 | $588,514,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.96 | $588,514,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.96 | $588,514,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.96 | $588,514,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.96 | $588,514,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.96 | $588,514,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.96 | $588,514,500 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.98 | $591,512,100 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.99 | $592,545,433 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.01 | $595,462,100 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.01 | $595,462,100 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.01 | $595,462,100 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.02 | $596,444,600 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.02 | $596,444,600 | 6 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.