First Commonwealth Financial, Corp. (FCF)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$21.34+0.85%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FCF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -2.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -6.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
FCF — earnings miss
Dated 2026-04-28
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 28, 2026, First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the three month period ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release and the related earnings tables are furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: A drop in net interest margin could show pressure on profits and earnings.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 4.00% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin stays at or above 4.00% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A larger drop in net interest income could signal worsening loan demand or margin pressure.
Worry ifQ2 net interest income decreases more than $4 million from Q1's $109.3 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 net interest income stays stable or increases compared to Q1.
Why it matters: More nonperforming loans may mean higher credit risk. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifNonperforming loans increase beyond $92.3 million in Q2.
Less concerning ifNonperforming loans fall or stay below $92.3 million.
Why it matters: A lower efficiency ratio means better control of costs. It shows the company runs well.
Supportive ifCore efficiency ratio was below 52% for Q3.
Worry ifCore efficiency ratio was above 55% for Q3.
Why it matters: Stabilizing loans may show better credit demand. It also shows better operational health.
Supportive ifEnd of period loans stabilize or increase from $2.23 billion in Q1 2026.
Worry ifEnd of period loans decrease further from $2.23 billion in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth shows the company is improving its profitability. It supports management's goal to increase net income.
Supportive ifQ2 net income growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 net income growth is below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Net interest margin affects how much money a company makes. A drop could mean trouble.
Worry ifNet interest margin is above 3.92%. This shows the company is making more money.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin is below 3.92%. This suggests possible problems with making money.
Why it matters: The Q2 results will show if net income continues to grow. This is key for investor confidence.
Watch forNet income for Q2 exceeds $37.5 million, showing growth.
Also watch forNet income for Q2 falls below $37.5 million, indicating a decline.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows better efficiency. This helps the overall health of the company.
Supportive ifOperating income for Q2 is over $47.2 million. This shows positive growth.
Worry ifOperating income for Q2 is below $47.2 million. This shows no improvement.
Why it matters: More buybacks could signal confidence in the company's value and support stock price.
Supportive ifMore share buyback plans beyond the current $75 million may be announced.
Worry ifNo new share buyback news or cuts to the current program.
Why it matters: More charge-offs can show credit quality problems. This can affect how much money is made.
Worry ifNet charge-offs are under $8.2 million. This shows credit quality is stable.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs are above $8.2 million. This suggests increasing credit risk.
Why it matters: A drop in core ROAA may show weaker profits and less operational efficiency.
Worry ifCore ROAA reported below 1.46%.
Less concerning ifCore ROAA remains at or above 1.46%.
Why it matters: A steady rise in dividends shows good capital management. It also shows confidence.
Supportive ifDividend per share goes up from $0.14. This shows a commitment to returning value.
Worry ifDividend stays at $0.14 or goes down. This indicates possible capital problems.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader challenges. It may impact First Commonwealth's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above 13% year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising core EPS shows strong profits. It also shows growth momentum.
Supportive ifCore diluted earnings per share reported at or above $0.44 for Q3.
Worry ifCore diluted earnings per share reported below $0.40 for Q3.
Why it matters: Better technology can make things work faster. It can also make customers happier.
Watch forLook for visible tech improvements within six months of the new CIO starting.
Also watch forNo big changes in technology or digital strategy in the same time frame.
Why it matters: A fall in core net income shows problems with efficiency and growth.
Worry ifCore net income falls below $35 million in the next earnings report.
Less concerning ifCore net income remains above $37 million in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Continued growth in net income supports management's goal to increase earnings. It signals strong performance.
Supportive ifQ3 net income reported above $44.6 million.
Worry ifQ3 net income reported below $44.6 million.
Why it matters: An increase in the dividend shows commitment to returning value to shareholders. It reflects financial health.
Supportive ifDividend per share increases from $0.14 in Q2 2026.
Worry ifDividend per share remains at $0.14 or decreases.
Why it matters: Ongoing share repurchases show disciplined capital use and support earnings per share growth. It can boost stock value.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed 645,695 shares in Q3 2026.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below 645,695 shares in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Higher net charge-offs mean worse asset quality. This can hurt profits and investor trust.
Worry ifNet charge-offs reported above $11.4 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs reported below $11.4 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A rising loan-to-deposit ratio shows more lending. It may mean growth or cash issues.
Watch forThe loan-to-deposit ratio is more than 92.7%.
Also watch forThe loan-to-deposit ratio is less than 92.7%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$84 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $162 loss on $10,000 · 1.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,468 loss on $10,000 · 14.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.