FirstCash (FCFS)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$193.34-0.60%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FCFS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FCFS — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-31
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 27, 2026, FirstCash Holdings, Inc., a Texas corporation (the “ Company ”), its wholly-owned subsidiaries, FirstCash, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ US Borrower ”), Chess Holdco Limited, a company incorporated under the laws of England and Wales with company number 16434482 (“ Chess Holdco ”), and Chess Bidco Limited, a company incorporated under the laws of England and Wales with company number 16434757 (“ Chess Bidco ”; Chess Holdco and…
Why it matters: Pawn segments drove much of this year’s growth. A sharp slowdown would weaken that growth story.
Watch forQ4 pawn segment revenue grows at least 20% year over year, near the reported Q3 growth of 28%.
Also watch forQ4 pawn segment revenue grows less than 10% year over year or falls from a year earlier.
Why it matters: The board raised the repurchase limit to $350 million. Actual purchases would show that the company is using cash for shareholder returns.
Supportive ifA filing reports total plan purchases above $128 million. That is more than the amount used on October 28.
Worry ifThe next quarterly report shows no increase from the $128 million already used.
Why it matters: AFF originations grew 3% in Q1 after falling 3% in Q4 2025. A return to decline would point to weaker demand.
Worry ifAFF reports loan and lease originations grew year over year for two straight quarters.
Less concerning ifAFF originations fall year over year in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: Pawn receivables show demand at existing stores. Growth below 10% would break a long run of strong gains.
Watch forU.S. same-store pawn receivables grow at least 10% year over year, and Latin America grows at least 10% in local currency.
Also watch forU.S. or Latin America same-store pawn receivables growth falls below 10% on the same basis.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$145 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $335 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,693 loss on $10,000 · 26.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: U.S. retail sales margins fell to 42% in Q3 from 43% a year earlier. A further drop could weaken store earnings.
Worry ifThe next report shows U.S. retail sales margins below 42%.
Less concerning ifThe next report shows U.S. retail sales margins at or above 43%.