FirstCash (FCFS)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$225.62+0.76%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FCFS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 126.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 114.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers
FCFS — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-31
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 27, 2026, FirstCash Holdings, Inc., a Texas corporation (the “ Company ”), its wholly-owned subsidiaries, FirstCash, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ US Borrower ”), Chess Holdco Limited, a company incorporated under the laws of England and Wales with company number 16434482 (“ Chess Holdco ”), and Chess Bidco Limited, a company incorporated under the laws of England and Wales with company number 16434757 (“ Chess Bidco ”; Chess Holdco and…
Why it matters: Closing the Ramsdens deal would expand FirstCash's presence in the U.K. market. This could drive future revenue growth.
Supportive ifThe acquisition closes with all necessary approvals and adds 174 U.K. locations.
Worry ifThe deal does not close by year-end. This is due to regulatory or shareholder issues.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for FirstCash. A drop below 15% signals a slowdown.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth remains at or above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: A slowdown in U.S. pawn segment growth could indicate weakening demand or competitive pressures.
Worry ifU.S. pawn segment revenue growth falls below 15% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifU.S. pawn segment revenue growth exceeds 20% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Changes in pawn loan fees can impact overall revenue and profitability. Monitoring this helps gauge pricing power.
Watch forPawn loan fees increase by more than 15% year-over-year in Q3.
Also watch forPawn loan fees decrease or grow less than 5% year-over-year in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$151 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $314 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,613 loss on $10,000 · 16.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth from Ramsdens would prove the acquisition was good. It would help FirstCash's market position.
Supportive ifRamsdens reports revenue growth above 10% in the first year after the acquisition.
Worry ifRamsdens revenue growth is below 5% in the first year after the acquisition.
Why it matters: Better operating income growth shows that management is controlling costs well. This helps profits.
Supportive ifOperating income growth in Q2 exceeds the previous quarter's growth of 30.5%.
Worry ifOperating income growth in Q2 is less than 30.5%.
Why it matters: Progress on the buyback plan shows management believes in the company's value and spending plan.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of share repurchases totaling at least $50 million by the end of Q3.
Worry ifNo significant share repurchases announced by the end of Q3.
Why it matters: Approval is needed to finalize the Ramsdens acquisition. This will expand FirstCash's U.K. presence.
Supportive ifRamsdens shareholders vote yes for the acquisition at the meeting.
Worry ifRamsdens shareholders vote against the deal at the meeting.
Why it matters: Details on the buyback will show how FirstCash plans to return value to shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement talks about the share buyback program.
Worry ifNo announcement or delay in the share buyback program.
Why it matters: Growth in same-store receivables shows strong demand in pawn segments.
Supportive ifSame-store pawn receivables growth exceeds 20% year over year.
Worry ifSame-store pawn receivables growth drops below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes to revenue guidance show that management is confident in demand and growth.
Supportive ifManagement raises full year pawn revenue guidance based on strong Q2 results.
Worry ifManagement cuts the full year pawn revenue guidance because of market conditions.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show revenue growth and performance in changing markets.
Watch forQ3 revenue growth exceeds 25% year over year.
Also watch forQ3 revenue growth falls below 15% year over year.